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  #21  
Old 10th January 2013, 01:39 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Yes the trainer/breed combo is an interesting angle.

G. Ryan/Shnitzel
Waterhouse/Don Eduardo etc.

I do look at breeding, more so in races like the Derby where many trainers get stars in the eyes and send sprinters over the 2400+ distance ranges which is often sheer madness.

It's looking more and more like a breeding/distance profile is the way forward, yet the journey has just begun.

We could maybe also pick the top 10 horses from each sire and follow these exclusively? Should be money in that, no??!!
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  #22  
Old 10th January 2013, 01:41 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CosMos
On the R&S website above that I got the data from they also show data for trainers that trained the progeny...also tracks where progeny raced

It's an amazing compilation of stats for sure!!!
I'll try and build something from there.....

Fab work Cosmos and Garyf!!!
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  #23  
Old 10th January 2013, 02:06 PM
CosMos CosMos is offline
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The sire over broodmare sire is one that I use to predict...
As well as the Fastnet Rock/Zabeel one mentioned earlier...
High Chaparral over Zabeel mares has produced 9 runners, 7 winners including 2SW It's A Dundeel and Hidden Asset...food for thought there for other maiden foals bred on this cross.
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  #24  
Old 10th January 2013, 02:21 PM
CosMos CosMos is offline
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I think that the individual runners to indiv. winners stat used with the consistency stat would be a great culling technique...

Eg: Zabeel has 70.5% winners to runners with a consistency of 13% overall. At least it tells us that 7 out of every 10 horses by Zabeel will win at least one race and of those horses, they rate well for consistency against the average.

The great Danehill had 73.5% of his starters win at least one race with a consistency of 13%. In NZ he was up around the 17%.

Lots of ways here to play with.
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  #25  
Old 11th January 2013, 06:19 AM
Vortech
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garyf
Hi T.S.


With the good breakdown by Cosmos would the trainers,
And a price for each horse, be it open, t/fluct, p/post, s/p, etc,
Help in the equation, several horses i raced years ago,
A particular trainer knew the traits and characteristics of the,
Breed and had good success with them hence the trainer angle.

The breeding part is way out of my league but presents a fascinating approach,
To picking winners, well to me anyway.

Cheers.
Gary.

Just looking at the Fastnet Rock Trainers you have some of the following strike rates

Waller - 12%
Waterhouse - 24%
Ryan - 14%
Price - 26%
Moody - 18%
Kavanagh (M) - 24%
Hayes - 17%
Cummings (A) - 18%

Adelaide Metro is the best hunting ground for me with this sire.
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  #26  
Old 11th January 2013, 09:49 AM
CosMos CosMos is offline
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To give an idea about how to go about picking a horse to follow...

First horse I looked at:
Young Fun @ Canterbury 11/1/13 Race 1
3c by More Than Ready out of Sharp Aunty (3f-2r-1w) by Flying Spur out of True Blonde (10f-8r-8w 1SW). Sharp Aunty only 1 to race, no winners when assessing Young Fun as a maiden so a low stat but granddam had 8 to race for 8 winners incl. a stakes winner. Good predictor (granddam).

More Than Ready/Flying Spur cross 42 starters, 27 wnrs, 7SW 4.31 AEI
A strong cross with adequate numbers to like the stat. AEI (average earnings index) 4.31 times the average

More Than Ready 13% consistency overall and 13% consistency this season. Total of 9 seasons with lowest 12%.

3yo consistency 3550 runs/457 wins 14%
3yo individual winners to runners 627/316 50.4%

Course strike rate for Canterbury 310 runs/51 wins 16%

Trainer: Peter Moody 18 indiv. runners/11 indiv. winners 61.1%, consistency 86 runs/20 wins 23%

Track conditions:
Fast 83/18 22%; Good 5047/682 14%, Dead 2046/265 13%, Slow 1049/133 13%, Heavy 704/95 13%

(stats include Young Fun's performance)
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  #27  
Old 11th January 2013, 10:47 AM
garyf garyf is offline
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There you go 'T/S"


With Vortech and Cosmos posts 25+ 26 below,
You are well on your way.

With me punting full time i have made a hard and fast rule,
That anything that doesn't achieve around a 25% strike rate,
With final rules i won't entertain.

That doesn't mean things with lesser strike rates can't win they certainly can,
It's the runs of outs attached that was always my problem.

The transition from a weekly wage to relying on the punt full time,
For a wage is a whole new ball game those who have been through it,
Can attest to especially the first 12 months.

So for me i would look at the Waterhouse Kavanagh raw strike rate(s) etc,
And would go from there.

Wow the Cosmos way with crossing breeds and doing the history,
Of the Sire(s) is mind blowing.

My mother and father never bet nor did my grandparents,
No wonder it took me 25> years to make it and lose 25 years,
Win 5 years so i am a long way behind overall.

Will attempt to have a look at what sires affect my selections,
Down the track so for me it will become a filter rather than a selection.

Wouldn't stats like sires whilst a possible selection plan also become a lay,
Plan again laying is not my expertise (unfortunately) but there are experts,
On this forum who are.

Cheers.
Garyf.
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  #28  
Old 11th January 2013, 11:00 AM
CosMos CosMos is offline
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Of course once a horse establishes a record of track conditions etc then the sire stat is not so important...each horse is different and the stats are an average overall...unless of course the horse is stepping up or back in distance or on a track condition for the first time....a useful guide for maiden runners or young horses with little form
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  #29  
Old 11th January 2013, 11:04 AM
CosMos CosMos is offline
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"Cosmos. I had a look at your website, very impressive."...

Sorry Star I thought you were talking about another site I have with breeding then realised that I don't have it linked here. Thanks for visiting my astronomy site and glad you liked it...cheers, Rich
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  #30  
Old 11th January 2013, 12:41 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garyf
There you go 'T/S"
With Vortech and Cosmos posts 25+ 26 below,
You are well on your way.

Hi Garyf,
Admittedly it is a good starting point, however the stats can be deceiving. For instance, Kavanagh's strike-rate would be heavily influenced by Atlantic Jewel (7 from 7).

Perhaps we look at all trainers who raise the Average strike rate of the Sire as a starting point? Or all horses by the top sires who've won in the city with a >=26% strike rate?
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