Pick any horse in any field and it is not a road to nowhere but a road to oblivion. You may win today but you will lose longterm because someone has their hand in till. You back the fav, they lose longterm, as with the second, third and fourth fav. Consistently picking the winner is the greatest challenge. But you must do this at a greater SR than the odds predict.

A subject I studied in depth for quite some time.


It's not as simple as that, the markets are dynamic.
There are many different reasons for odds movement.
Firstly you have the generic odds movement, which without any outside input, cause most of the market to drift to a better percentage.
Next are the profesional ratings overlays which are picked off fairly early.
Changes in state of track can also cause big movements.
Following on from the above comes the money, stable money and big hitter money. And that ranges from inside knowledge to set ups.
Sometimes inside knowledge and set ups do not go to plan, which is why
the strike rate improves, but a loss is still incurred.

If one were to simply adjust prices allowing for over round and make that the minimum acceptable price, I can guarantee you'll lose. The only way around this is to have a more accurate set of ratings than the bookie openers.

Mark Read's ratings were more accurate, and simply using his ratings and adjusting market percentages would produce a profit on overlays.
This is not the same case with prepost markets and bookies openers.

Because one cannot predict which way the market will go in general, one needs to think outside the box and think of other ways to cash in on market movements. Unless of course you have a set of ratings that outperform the opening bookmaker prices or prepost markets.

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Good input - a decent dose of realism. So an initial test for out-performance might be a comparison of the first 4 in the market across...

1. Newspaper pre-post market
2. On course bookmaker openers
3. Set of ratings - to be determined

Any suggestions for initial sample size?

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

You'd need at least 2,000 races I think to capture a sample of all prices, all winners.

Professionals like Sean B, Mark R, to some extent Zeljko R, make it a business to pick off the overs in their ratings, and if the overs aren't there, sometimes push the market in that direction.
I readily admit, I have never been able to come up with my own ratings which outperform the openers.

Perhaps the place to start is to concentrate on specific race and class types.

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Or perhaps an initial sample of say 150 races to test the waters, as per the Bhagwan theorum and for a specific event, as you suggest.

Would only a take a month or so to gather - might look at 1400m for starters and monitor for metro / non metro etc

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Thanks CP for your input. It is always appreciated.
Thinking out loud here, more to invoke discussion. We have to get better ratings. We need them to beat the market movements. The tote runs on pure weight of money and the end result is consistent with the true odds of the horse if the rake was added back, so long term you lose what the TAB grabs. This is similar with the bookies and the exchanges. So you have to be better and/ or be good at cherrypicking.
There are hundreds of ratings out there. The majority don't go near beating the openers. They all start with the history and put specific weighting on each impact value. Within a range they all produce a similar result.

When the trainer nominates he is expecting an even field. When the handicapper finishes he is certain that within his guidelines he has created an even field. Everybody else knows different.

Now Mark R has been rating for eons and at most venues and all races. To do so he must utilize a formula. He can't study and formulate that amount of races in that time. So he has to have help and a formula for consistency.

So the bottom line is "What impact values does he rate highest and most relevant? Then his second etc."

beton, I believe he is the best in the business, based on what I collected.
I'm not sure he is still active as he sold a lot of his business ventures and his properties after he suffered a stroke. IAS of course are still providing initial prices "from his database", but I believe they don't have the Colonel Sanders secret recipe.

As soon as he sold, the ratings took a big nose dive which confirms my suspicions. I remember his weight ratings for each race were publicised on the Ozeform website and then withdrawn altogether. That's a big hint.

I do know from my research on his ratings way back, I found out he uses weight ratings adjusted for time and track condition. The time part made up a bigger part than the rest. The final weight rating was all that was published.

Sorry I can't supply any more info, but that's as far as I got.
Just as I was starting to collect the weight ratings and times, they disappeared from the site

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Excellent insights Gentleman. Apologies for my somewhat feeble contributions here.

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

LG
All pertinant contributions are worthy. IF no-one is listening it is akin to talking to one's self. Again if nobody learns, you might as well do so. So contribute. They are not feeble.

Agreed, all input contributes to the generation of discussion and ideas.

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