partypooper,

Give the attached a try, only manipulate the blue coloured areas and everything else should automatically updated. Pretty basic spreadsheet, let me know if you have any problems or questions. You can see how its worked out from the equations too so that you could adapt if needed.

Attached Files

partypooper.xlsx (10.8 KB, 534 views)

evajb001 I haven't quite got the details worked out yet, but the basic plan is to use a starting bank, and double the Target per race as the bank doubles, my particular method of selection here like most has long winning runs sometimes, obviously with the opposite sometimes, the idea is to sacrifice some banks in order to hit the winning run, make hay while the sun shines so to speak. for example there was one run that x the bank by 20 but had sacrificed 8 previous banks, this was a dry run just splitting the stake over the 2 selections per race, but as you know this method runs up some pretty hefty banks, so a stop loss has to be in place. I'm sure you get the drift!

Any chance you could repost in '.xls' format? Got an ancient version of excel running here, foot pedal etc

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

As attached your lordship

Attached Files

partypooper.xls (24.5 KB, 466 views)

Another calculator

Attached Files

dutchcalc.xlsx (1.40 MB, 529 views)

Hi All,

You could use the Dutch Book Calculator which is free on ozracetools. It allows you to save on any horse and enter amounts for bet, profit or return.

Very into dutching of late.

Found a post by Bhagwan recently with an excellent staking plan.

Post: http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...2562&postcount=

Thread: http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...33&page=1&pp=10

update, Re:


At that time I was testing, was before Unitab went Flash.
The web imports were working and I just nearly got to end of the line in Excel to fine tune a hedge calculator.
Then, like a flash, Flash web pages messed up the process, so I took a break.

But the theory still stands and testing will resume soon again.
The method of selection I use for test and developments, due to simplicity is Descending favs. Not that it's THE method, it's one of them.


So, to design a hedge calculator from scratch using Excel becomes easier with a bit of practice.
round-up and round-down has to be considered also at the end of the unit allocation amounts.

Default Target can be set at 25
Bet amount limit is a percent of 80, Variable
Runners, 3 ( personal choice )

25 and 80 means that if your cost of the bet exceeds 20 units, consider a no-bet. It's because one of your selections is paying low.
If you like 1.5 favs, then consider 120 % instead of 80
It's like shopping, Value.
My personal rule is, why bet more than the target profit, lets say bet limit is set to 150% of a 25 profit target. I think that equates to 25 +12.50 = 37.50 bet cost to make 25 profit. Where is the Value in that? Why give in?

Same if your Target is 100, the bet limit would be 80% ( 80 units)
But if it's a loss chasing strategy, lets say Bet 1 loses and the cost of that bet was 15 to make a profit of 25, ( good Value)
So the next New Target is 15 + your default of 25 = 40
The bet limit is still 80 Max of 40

Some may argue the next point.

IF the 2nd bet to the 3rd suitable bet has had 5 no-bet races in between, you raise the target by 1 for each no bet race. ( we are assuming fully automated systems here that scan every race on the card, and assuming one waits for the PAYING results before the next bet after a bet-race, Maximum wait can be a Variable in minutes.


On average, a 9 losing streak will need a 2500 bank.
Question is, does your selection method do 9 consecutive losses often?

It gets more complex in it's strategy if one was not playing fixed odds, you have to take into account the possible unders within the hedge's unit allocation amount calculation.

And if chasing bigger amounts,( at around the 5th loss), then Win Pool amounts will be another headache, but can be factored into it all.

So have a tried and tested selection method with average of 3- 4 consecutive losses.

When the bank reaches let's say 5000, raise the Default Target to 30, conservatively.


Why so many Variables?
Confuse the TAB so no strategy is the same or as usual they'll plug it.

evajb001

That example you asked for: this is actual selections for today.

bet 1 H1 6.10 Lost H2 8.50 Lost
bet 2 H1 8.30 Lost H2 9.00 Lost
bet 3 H1 5.10 Lost H2 2.80 Lost
bet 4 H1 7.40 Lost H2 2.40 Lost
bet 5 H1 2.10 Won H2 7.10 Lost
bet 6 H1 6.30 Won H2 5.20 Lost
bet 7 H1 5.50 Won H2 10.00 Lost
bet 8 H1 18.20 Lost H2 3.70 Lost

At this stage we carry forward the Target to bet no 1 tomorrow. Thanks again for your interest and same to all of course.

Cheers mate, nearly missed your post!

Looks like a nice little 'perpetual profits staking machine', evajb.
Might use it to target 5% bank as per an old post I dig up from garyf earlier.

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB