Hi CP,

Let's forget turnover for a the purpose of illustrating the point. I rechecked my figures, so as to ensure that I provide only factual information. Accordingly I have copied and pasted the relevant text directly from the Betfair web site. I have assumed they have it displayed correctly.

1. Betfair charges a Commission on your net winnings on a market. Commission is calculated by multiplying your net winnings by the Market Base Rate. From this we will apply a discount;

2. The size of this discount, or your Discount Rate, is determined by the number of Betfair Points you have accrued on your account;

3. You earn Betfair Points every time you bet on a market. You will earn 1 point for every 10 pence of commission paid (if you have net winnings) or implied commission (if you have a net loss). Implied commission is calculated in exactly the same way as commission but refers to losses rather than winnings. Betfair Points are awarded equally whether you win or lose;

4. For the purpose of calculating Betfair Points your commission or implied commission on a market is rebased to British Pounds at the time of settlement. Your Discount Rate is calculated from your current Betfair Points every week. This occurs at midnight (GMT) every Sunday .....

So the way I read this is:
In order to get a Betfair commission discount you need to earn Betfair Points, which are based on your commission from net winnings or net losses in a market calculated at the same rate. Whether you win $100 or lose $100 you will earn the same number of points. Except your dollars are converted to British pounds for the purposes of the Betfair points calculation.

In order for you to have a commission rate of 4.8% (as you stated) instead of the 6.5% which is the full rate, you must accrue somewhere between 23,000 and 25,999 points PER WEEK as that designates the required 26% discount (6.5 x 0.74= 4.81).

Let's say we use 24,000 points for ease of calculation. In order to earn 24,000 points per week you need to pay 2,400 British Pounds in actual or implied commission. (24,000/10 = 2400). This is because you earn 1 point for every 10 pence of commission paid.

To achieve this based on the FULL 6.5% Market Base Rate your results will need to fall in a RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN Losing (net) -36,923 pounds and winning (net) 36,923 pounds (2400/0.065 = 36,923). At the current exchange to Australian Dollars that RESULT ranges somewhere between a –$62,746 and +$62,746; that's EACH WEEK in order to retain the level of discount which is eroded by the Betfair decay each week. It could be that you break even for the week; which means you paid commission on $31,373 in winnings and implied commission on $31,373 in losses.

The figures above are the resultant (Net) figures and NOT the actual turnover you would have to have in order to pay commission/implied commission on that +-$62,746 range.

It is possible that I am wrong however this comes directly from the Betfair website so I'm not sure how I can be. Perhaps it is that you are looking at your own discount rate which could be 4.8%. In this case you are paying somewhere around 6.18% in actual commission based on a market base rate of 6.5%.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

The way I understand it Paul is that you must maintain a balance of between 23,000 and 25,999 points at the end of each week get the discount you describe above.

So if we say at start of a week we have 25000 points & accumulate 6000 points by betting during the week less 15% weekly decay, our balance at weeks end used to determine our discount rate for the following week is 26350 points.

Hi stugots

Yes that is correct.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Ok, I must be missing something as the example you set out requires one to generate 25000 points a week, rather than maintain at least 25000 - big difference.

Takes a bit of work but not that hard to get to 20000+points.

Hi stugots

No you have not missed anything. The wording I used "generate" was not correct. Maintain is correct, i'm agreeing with you.

Point of the posts though (see previous posts) is that the math to get to that point is as per my last post. Its not a matter of easily getting to a commission rate of 4.8% and maintaining it without significant turnover/commission generation, whether that be actual or implied commission.

So it's clear I'm not suggesting that CP doesn't have a 4.8% overall rate but simply stating what is required betting wise to reach that point and to maintain it.

Anyway if you see the need to debate it further perhaps we should transfer it to another thread as we are getting off the point of CP's initial thread.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Nothing to debate Paul, other than one does not need to turnover anywhere near the figures quoted in your original post to maintain a balance in excess of 20000 points.

Anyway, I am off to earn a point or 2

Followers of the systems that come with RaceCensus had a pretty good October. We beat the tote by a massive 27.90%, so obviously Best Tote, Betfair would have boosted the return by a fair bit.
Amazing considering the maximum win dividend was $8.00 and the average win dividend was $2.86!

We bet in a total of 94 races for the month, returning a win profit of 26.20 units @ tote price. We had a 44.70% win strike rate and a 65.60% place strike rate.

For the place, we lost 1.10% using one tote dividends - or 1.10 units lost.

For September and October combined the systems produced 33.74 units profit at tote prices or 17.40% POT betting in 192 races.

RaceCensus systems have been deliberately devised with consistency in mind. We don't target longshots, we target fancied horses, which meet certain criteria of speed, fitness, form and edge. This ensures that users enduring a bad run will bounce back very quickly into profit.

Greater returns are achievable using Best Tote, Betfair etc.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Flemington Race 6 Fontelina might be worth a wager.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

RaceCensus systems that come with the database have got off to a flying start this month...



*Tattsbet dividends used.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Unfortunately Fontelina finished 4th, will post more daily specials for major race days.

The strength of a system and the non reliance on longshots can often be highlighted by the place performance in relation to the win performance. If there is a gap between the two, larger than the expected norm, then chances are the system relies on a chaos result to get it into profit. Here is the place performance of the RaceCensus systems, for November.



This highlights the consistency of the win results and the confidence that the performance will continue within the scope of past results.

*Tattsbet dividends used.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg