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  #11  
Old 27th October 2017, 08:01 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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I don't believe the weight of money is responsible for the shortening of the odds in most cases. I believe that "the market" knows in advance which horses are favoured by punters and it's something I can't put my finger on, but, "the market" dances to it's own tune.

I know this might sound like a fairytale, and I may not be explaining it so that others understand where I'm coming from, but "the market" dances to it's own tune.

Have a look at massive market shorteners and how the bookies are crying when one gets up, which is not very often. The bookies aren't crying, they'll get you long term on these massive racecourse tips and shorteners, and get you big time.

That's my two bobs worth
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  #12  
Old 27th October 2017, 08:05 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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I'd say uselessbettor has forgotten more about markets than I'll ever know, but I see things from a different perspective, I think. We may see things the same, it's complex.
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  #13  
Old 28th October 2017, 10:27 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Damian Oliver on Egg Tart, later on some scribes suggested how hard it is to win second up in that particular race. History! And at that same meeting wasn't there a horse in the last backed in from 14''s to 3's?
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  #14  
Old 19th December 2017, 02:21 PM
midas midas is offline
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Coming in late on this, however;
In the old days a bookmaker had his penciller who recorded the bets and, if any good, could tell the bookmaker how much was outstanding against each horse and his market was adjusted to limit further payouts or to attract money towards horses carrying less money to balance his book and give an overall profit.
The TABs don't have to worry about this because the money held is distributed to winners after the race and after the percentage profit is deducted. They really don't care whether an odds on favourite or 100/1 wins they always receive their profit on turnover. The amount of money invested on each horse on a TAB does effect the winning payouts.
Now with fixed price markets we are back to the old days of the bagmen where IF IT WAS ME with my computer processing bets on a race I would be adjusting my prices to accept bets that would always provide a percentage profit on any race. The name of the game for any bookmaker IS PROFIT so the amount of money invested on particular horses is going to effect my price.
My brother-in-law was a bookie for a short time only because he would gamble against particular horses and not balance his book.
Of course there were a few bookmakers of iron nerves who had great betting duals with the legendary punters of their day but they were the exception to the rule.
I would suggest that internet bookies are not gamblers, they work on a percentage profit, and therefore the money invested over all the starters in a particular race is going to effect the price offered at a given time.

Midas
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  #15  
Old 21st December 2017, 10:53 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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All your comments are very interesting but I'm not swayed from my beliefs about how a market is formed. Thanks for your comments and you'll be the first to know if I ever consider jumping over to the "dark side" lol.

Different opinions make a market don't they?
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  #16  
Old 27th January 2018, 10:38 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Do you want a bet?

Jokes aside.

That live market is amazingly accurate.
Prices on the TAB often change after they have jumped due to the time loop of 90 secs for final bets to process at jump time.

Try this exercise.
Do a screen capture of the Tatts market before & after jump time & see the difference.
Majority of times, the horse that wins , pays less than the jump time price. The ones that loose, generally blow out in price.
Go figure.
It gives a strong reasoning for conspiracy theories.
Govt agencies have all denied that there is anything untoward happening.
Funny that.

One thing I read, was that the market 2min out is based on form & last 30 seconds , chasing the market as to what's hot, aka, so called "smart money".
A bloke can go crazy if he starts that Lark.
You will see those sort of punters running like maniacs to get on at the last second,so they don't miss out getting set.

If you go to those market comparison sites. You will see that most are around the 120% market range. As shown at the bottom of their market prices. This is called an over round, the over round being 20%. Aka profit. Change one price & it changes the others. It would be an expensive game , trying to manipulate the market so your horse gets a better price. What if your horse looses big time. Its just another way of getting burnt

When you look at those market comparisons, you will notice Betfair nearly always has the better prices, even after their commission. No matter what horse you look at in the field.
So, to put more value in your favour. Work out you bets using the other markets. Eg TAB, Then place your bet with betfair 30sec from jump.

It will make the difference of breaking even, into showing a profit.
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  #17  
Old 7th February 2018, 03:32 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
Prices on the TAB often change after they have jumped due to the time loop of 90 secs for final bets to process at jump time.

When you look at those market comparisons, you will notice Betfair nearly always has the better prices, even after their commission. No matter what horse you look at in the field.
So, to put more value in your favour. Work out you bets using the other markets. Eg TAB, Then place your bet with betfair 30sec from jump.

It will make the difference of breaking even, into showing a profit.


Hi Bhagwan,
This rort on the totes has been going on for years, they explain it away that the servers update the prices at the very last second. In this day and age, after they did away with the Crisp system, one would have to be very nave o believe that their servers are not equipped to show almost instantly the last bet before the market closed, except when a market is closed and reopened (very rare) in the case of a delay. It's always my opinion that like the bookies, some premium clients and in fact employees are getting on after the jump. My sister worked for telephone betting at the tote and she verified this, although they have been denying it for more than twenty years.

Re Betfair, they often have poorer prices after commission and long term statistics show that Betfair markets are much more accurate than the tote, on firmers in the market. One will often see firmers on the tote that are not firmers on Betfair, and vice versa.
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  #18  
Old 7th February 2018, 08:32 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
I don't believe the weight of money is responsible for the shortening of the odds in most cases. I believe that "the market" knows in advance which horses are favoured by punters and it's something I can't put my finger on, but, "the market" dances to it's own tune.

I know this might sound like a fairytale, and I may not be explaining it so that others understand where I'm coming from, but "the market" dances to it's own tune.

Have a look at massive market shorteners and how the bookies are crying when one gets up, which is not very often. The bookies aren't crying, they'll get you long term on these massive racecourse tips and shorteners, and get you big time.

That's my two bobs worth


When you say the market is dancing to its own tune but you can't put your finger in it, could it be that you are actually referring to human behaviour, whether this be hidden to some degree or all out there on show??

LG
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  #19  
Old 7th February 2018, 09:52 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Originally Posted by Snert
I don't believe the weight of money is responsible for the shortening of the odds


I'm sorry, but the weight of money is the ONLY thing that influences the odds on the TAB (tote). How and why people back certain horses is a different matter.

Bookies can set their prices anywhere they want to, but risk huge losses if they disregard the amount of monies wagered on each horse.
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  #20  
Old 7th February 2018, 11:14 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackdog1
Originally Posted by Snert
I don't believe the weight of money is responsible for the shortening of the odds


I'm sorry, but the weight of money is the ONLY thing that influences the odds on the TAB (tote). How and why people back certain horses is a different matter.

.


Not a different matter surely. How and why people back certain horses (and when) determines the weight of money which shapes the odds at a given point in time.. or are we arguing the same point here?!

LG
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