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  #11  
Old 17th April 2020, 11:28 AM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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Thanks for the post Shaun,


I have tried Google sheets but found it restrictive on large files and it does not have a name manager. You can define name/ranges but a real hassle when wanting to add or change, as most of my files use a lot of named ranges and named cells I gave it the flick.


Thanks anyway.



Gritz
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  #12  
Old 20th April 2020, 10:23 PM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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Houston we have a problem, all links are down. Saturday went to upload to One Drive selections for Caufield prior to start time and 99% of data was missing. Sorted that out from backup and then the link did not work.


Thread kaput over and out. Needs deleting to stop wasting people's time.

Gritz
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  #13  
Old 21st May 2020, 07:33 PM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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I see a lot of views. Must be a lot of punters looking for an edge to make a buck.
As no feedback on this post I thought I would pique some interest with a few facts. This system simple works on numbers. The numbers are a combination from 6 criteria __ Order of favouritism, Prepost Price, class, distance, and finishing position of last two starts.
A number to qualify must have a positive expectancy, for every 50 starts at a level stake of $1 it's return must be equal or greater than $55. A lot of number combo's don't have a history of at least 50 starts so those would not qualify. Those that show promise with less than 50 starts I batch those with other numbers to get the required 50 and the value
It is not as difficult as it seems. For a start it is easy to find numbers with a negative value. Some really obvious ones are horses that have a prepost price of more than 101, horses just before the jump that are showing divs of 300 or more, non open races (These are 2 and 3yo races) delete any at a preprost (Early prices in the Herald Sun are used ) quote more than 51. Many more are easy to find.
Would you believe this fact, on average 33% of betting days have a higher total BSP return than the number of starters. in other words you could back every horse at level stakes and make a profit on those days.
Example this year metro Melbourne Saturdays only, has a total BSP of 1870.72 and there were 1672 starters. Level stake at min bet size of $5 would have given you a net profit (that is after commission of 6%) $780.82. Now take out the obvious negative examples from above = 66 runners and you now have a profit of $1104.04. With a lot of work, you too could develop a number system of positive values and negative values. You then put these numbers and their values into a table in excel that the values can be looked up, using VLOOKUP on todays numbers.

Simple system to date had 416 selections for 71 winners from the total starters of 1672 and a profit of 712.27. Betting on 18 days for a profit per day of 39.67.
Not shabby as the total capital outlayed of one's own money was 36.6

Is there enough interest to keep this thread continuing or do I call it a day?
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  #14  
Old 21st May 2020, 09:07 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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You DO pique my interest. My problem is I can't understand the system. But that's just me. Please keep posting as there's not much on around here lately.
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  #15  
Old 21st May 2020, 10:34 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Sorry this thread has not taken off like you may have hopped but it does have a lot of value, those that have the database behind them may find some ideas like this to test.

I like the idea of testing single values, i use a similar ratings system at times that sort of works along this lines, Impact Values.

A set criteria for example, "days since last run" was tested against thousands of other runners to determine the horses performance just on this criteria alone, this is quite old and one day i would love to retest this idea.

If a runner had a 1 it was regarded as no negative or positive expectations.

0-5 days 1.5
6-10 1.67
11-14 1.32
15-21 1.22
22-30 1.07
31+ 0.65

so what this means is runners that started between 6 to 10 days ago won 67% more races as apposed to a runner 31 days or more who won 35% less races than the average.

Looking at your ideas of backing all runners on the day i have in the past looked at laying every runner in the race for the place, so in a race of 15 runners we would need to get less than $15 worth of place odds to make a profit, i wonder where the optimal race size would be, we might find that it is laying in smaller fields where you only have 2 place pools.

Just some thoughts.
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  #16  
Old 21st May 2020, 11:05 PM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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Thanks for replying - The Ocho and Shaun, gives me more incentive to post.
I like the ideas that flow when people engage in questions, queries and expound new theories.

There are a lot of guests viewing who could join and get in on the discussions, you never know you could find some gems simply by asking.


Will give a better explanation of Simple system when I next post.
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  #17  
Old 22nd May 2020, 01:31 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Yes i do understand it better when people join in, but you also need to know some of us have been here a long time, myself must be around 17 or 18 years.
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  #18  
Old 22nd May 2020, 03:35 PM
jose jose is offline
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Love reading the forum. Been here a while as well.
Not much to contribute personally but would love to see more of this type of thing so keep it up folks, well done.
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  #19  
Old 15th June 2020, 08:08 AM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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Finally!

I’m pretty sure I have this OneDrive sorted. It was not working properly because of links to sheets that were copied from.
There are 3 files, file “Rip” is unprotected and usable. Download that file to excel if you wish to use. “Rip” will not be updated.

“Simple 2020” is protected read only. This file will be regularly updated. It has an information sheet that explains the system and some odds and ends. Use this file for web viewing.

“Simple Five” shows five years results of “Simple System” It will not be updated, it is also protected … read only.

The information sheet took a lot of time to write and explain how it all works.
I did many revisions before settling on this. Did not want to give up my main edges but wanted to explain the process clearly.

Hope you find it to be useful or at least informative.

New One Drive link


One Drive
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  #20  
Old 17th June 2020, 11:06 AM
entropy entropy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gritz
Finally!

I’m pretty sure I have this OneDrive sorted. It was not working properly because of links to sheets that were copied from.
There are 3 files, file “Rip” is unprotected and usable. Download that file to excel if you wish to use. “Rip” will not be updated.

“Simple 2020” is protected read only. This file will be regularly updated. It has an information sheet that explains the system and some odds and ends. Use this file for web viewing.

“Simple Five” shows five years results of “Simple System” It will not be updated, it is also protected … read only.

The information sheet took a lot of time to write and explain how it all works.
I did many revisions before settling on this. Did not want to give up my main edges but wanted to explain the process clearly.

Hope you find it to be useful or at least informative.

New One Drive link


One Drive


My compliments on some nice work Gritz!
Thank you for sharing your spreadsheet and ideas.
I was impressed by the spreadsheet and its layout, makes my efforts look pretty beige!

I had a look at your results and will put in a couple of comments if you don't mind.

The first thing I do when looking at result sheets is a quick look at the distribution of wins and their prices: punting success I think is all about controlling variance since we are trying to make decisions under uncertainty.

I look at the average win divvy and the standard deviation, this tells me you have four outliers at 48.60, 28.00, 31.70 and 35.30.

The nett profit on these four outliers just about covers all the nett profit for the total list of bets.
This would make me nervous as longer term success assumes we could still get a flow of long-priced winners. Maybe we will but if not....?

One way of dealing with this situation is to first replace all win divs greater than 1.96*stdev with 1.96*stdev.
Then repeat the analysis to give a new value for the average win div and a new stdev.
Again replace any win div greater than 1.96*stdev.
Some analysts repeat this process yet again.
Finally we get a more robust estimate for the win divs from which we can calculate likely pot etc.

Another method is to calculate an Archie score, this score attempts to answer the question: Are my results a fluke or am I onto something promising?

Your overall method I think is a good approach: assess the market as a whole rather than trying to pick individual winners.
Perhaps backing the performance or non-performance of punters is easier than backing the performance or non-performance of horses?
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