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  #21  
Old 17th June 2020, 12:09 PM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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entropy,
I appreciate any constructive criticism which yours certainly is.
First the standard deviation I cant seem to get my head around it,(have delved into it and other testing formula's leaves me fuddled) unfortunately I left school at 14.

I took out those 4 highest and was still left with a profit of 240. Then going back over the previous five years there were 23 selections that won over 25.00. In my previous post I mentioned that my strike rate was down from normal but that an increase in div. value offset the lower strike rate.

The system dictates what I back and there are a lot of long-shots bet on and it seems I get a few of them up. The two "Simple spreadsheets" you can filter and if you highlight the filtered range you can see sum,average,count,max etc if turned on at the bottom bar.


Good to read your synopsis, Thanks for the post
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  #22  
Old 17th June 2020, 12:52 PM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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Just like to add to my last post.
It was in a different thread that I posted about lower strike rate

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gritz
Yes thorns, the same as the spreadsheet "Simple 2020" the above 6 weeks also had a few late scratchings after posting selections. Still, a nice profit.


So far this year long-shots have had way above average amount of wins. They have relegated a few selections to second.
Strike rate so far this year is on the low side but compensated by above average divs.

Cheers
The trouble I would have is that I don't know what BSP will pay. Those 4 big divs were Prepost in the Herald Sun at ...
11.00 For the 35.3, 17.00 for the 31.70, 26 for the 48.60 and 12.00 for the 28.00 and as I back early what to do? There were 32 other long shots that I also backed, not knowing they would be long shots.

Cheers all's well that ends well
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  #23  
Old 18th June 2020, 10:31 AM
entropy entropy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gritz
Just like to add to my last post.
It was in a different thread that I posted about lower strike rate

The trouble I would have is that I don't know what BSP will pay. Those 4 big divs were Prepost in the Herald Sun at ...
11.00 For the 35.3, 17.00 for the 31.70, 26 for the 48.60 and 12.00 for the 28.00 and as I back early what to do? There were 32 other long shots that I also backed, not knowing they would be long shots.

Cheers all's well that ends well


G'day Gritz,
I feel your pain!
(Is that why they call it gambling?)
Back something only to see the price blow out, Lay something then see the price shorten, meh!

BSP is sometimes mysterious too.

You write that you back early, that has pros and cons.
As the market matures and liquidity increases then it tends overall to be more efficient and more accurate.
Nowadays a lot of money flows into Betfair close to the jump and timing when to bet without a robot could be a problem.
In theory the punter having the very last bet of all before the jump has the most information and has an advantage over all other punters.
But exact timing of the jump is not an exact science!

In one way your betting early on the longer priced horses could work to your advantage if there is less smart money around assuming the theory that "late money is smart money" holds.
It seems you have a selection model but not a pricing model?
At the time you place a bet are you guided at all by the early market as to whether to make the bet or to vary the amount of the bet?
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  #24  
Old 18th June 2020, 01:00 PM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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entropy

Gotta read my posts properly before pressing send! Sorry about the phrase “constructive criticism”, should have been “constructive comment” in last post to you.
Don’t know if you read my information sheet but I do have price considerations in my formulas as well as class and distance. No to the changing prices during the day for this system. Each selection that I back has a positive expectancy. Some times it works against me, sometimes in my favour.
There is a different system that I back according to price just before start time. 1/Win div * float (on multiple selections) just before the jump this gives me a lot higher market win rate but is not suitable or provable for a blog.

Simple was devised to hopefully prove that a system winning is possible. Hope this answers your last sentence.

I have found that at level stake betting, the profit on the bets that blow, far out weigh the losses on horses that shorten.

Cheers
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  #25  
Old 18th June 2020, 09:31 PM
entropy entropy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gritz
entropy

Gotta read my posts properly before pressing send! Sorry about the phrase “constructive criticism”, should have been “constructive comment” in last post to you.
Don’t know if you read my information sheet but I do have price considerations in my formulas as well as class and distance. No to the changing prices during the day for this system. Each selection that I back has a positive expectancy. Some times it works against me, sometimes in my favour.
There is a different system that I back according to price just before start time. 1/Win div * float (on multiple selections) just before the jump this gives me a lot higher market win rate but is not suitable or provable for a blog.

Simple was devised to hopefully prove that a system winning is possible. Hope this answers your last sentence.

I have found that at level stake betting, the profit on the bets that blow, far out weigh the losses on horses that shorten.

Cheers


G'day Gritz,

Aha! My bad.
I looked at the Rip sheet only.
Now I see on the Simple2020 sheet the details of what you are doing.
Impressive results, well done!

Interesting that you seem to have detected errors in the early markets and are able to take advantage of them.
And by using only a small number of factors.
I like your reference to positive expectancy and the link to Kelly betting you included.
I don't have your VBA and spreadsheet skills but I will have a look at your ideas and see if I can apply them in a program I am more used to.

You have a BSP file, I collect Betfair divs as they are moments before the jump time, not as accurate as BSP maybe but they at least reflect the prices that were available just before the jump time.

I take it you only look at Melbourne metro form and races?
Is there a reason you don't look elsewhere?
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  #26  
Old 5th July 2020, 10:54 AM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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Hi all,

Well half the year gone so I thought it time for an update on how Simple-2020 is going.
Some positives —To date we are in profit, it has reached a new high point every month.
The profit is now big enough to cover at least a 100 bets (about 4 days/weeks or 36 races)
Dividends have been slightly above average. Selections per week have been on par. Approx. 23 per week

Some negatives __ Win rate is below expectations and we have not yet struck a good winning sequence.
Currently 3 losing days in a row. “Simple” did briefly hit a high point the last week of June (first race) but
down hill since then.

To entropy re - your queries. Due to age and health issues of my wife and myself, I only devote about 8 hours
A week to betting — An hour or so Fridays, 6 hours on a Saturday and another hour at any convenient time
to do updates. Metro Saturdays in Melbourne provides smaller commission than most other states, a regular
paper that is easy to get and a big enough pool so the prices are not as susceptible to price fluctuations.
I have since mid 2018 logged Betfair prices after the first update at the two minutes before off.

The betting method I employ is not “Simple—2020” betting, I bet to my perceived chance of winning coupled with
Betfair’s price chance of winning. An example —Betfair price 7.80 = 1/7.80 = .128 (12.8% chance) My chance .146
14.6% chance. Then I average the two =Average (.146,.128) = .137 So my bet would be according to Kelly criterion
on my stats 40% of bank. Float (500) * 40% = 200 * Average chance of winning 13.7% = Integer 27.00

To sum up my bet on the 7.80 horse would be 27.00 on a float of 500 and I do this for as many horses that
qualify, could be anywhere from 1 to ten qualifiers per race. Sounds complicated but is all calculated by formula’s
In excel in the blink of an eye.

Cheers!
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  #27  
Old 6th July 2020, 12:09 PM
entropy entropy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gritz
Hi all,

Well half the year gone so I thought it time for an update on how Simple-2020 is going.
Some positives —To date we are in profit, it has reached a new high point every month.
The profit is now big enough to cover at least a 100 bets (about 4 days/weeks or 36 races)
Dividends have been slightly above average. Selections per week have been on par. Approx. 23 per week

Some negatives __ Win rate is below expectations and we have not yet struck a good winning sequence.
Currently 3 losing days in a row. “Simple” did briefly hit a high point the last week of June (first race) but
down hill since then.

To entropy re - your queries. Due to age and health issues of my wife and myself, I only devote about 8 hours
A week to betting — An hour or so Fridays, 6 hours on a Saturday and another hour at any convenient time
to do updates. Metro Saturdays in Melbourne provides smaller commission than most other states, a regular
paper that is easy to get and a big enough pool so the prices are not as susceptible to price fluctuations.
I have since mid 2018 logged Betfair prices after the first update at the two minutes before off.

The betting method I employ is not “Simple—2020” betting, I bet to my perceived chance of winning coupled with
Betfair’s price chance of winning. An example —Betfair price 7.80 = 1/7.80 = .128 (12.8% chance) My chance .146
14.6% chance. Then I average the two =Average (.146,.128) = .137 So my bet would be according to Kelly criterion
on my stats 40% of bank. Float (500) * 40% = 200 * Average chance of winning 13.7% = Integer 27.00

To sum up my bet on the 7.80 horse would be 27.00 on a float of 500 and I do this for as many horses that
qualify, could be anywhere from 1 to ten qualifiers per race. Sounds complicated but is all calculated by formula’s
In excel in the blink of an eye.

Cheers!


Thanks Gritz!

That has helped to clear up some things up for me.

The lower Melbourne commissions make it sensible to bet there.
Also using the Betfair market as an input is a good idea: this market will have information in it that we don't have so taking the average of your price and Betfair price must help over time.

Sorry to hear of the health issues, best of luck in this era of the Covid plague.
Not all bad as it seems Betfair pools have benefitted!

I notice Flemington is now a hot spot: this virus is shows lack of respect for punters!
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  #28  
Old 11th July 2020, 08:04 PM
shiddle shiddle is offline
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Hi Gritz,
Can you give more details about your system please, im finding it veryinteresting.
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  #29  
Old 13th July 2020, 08:44 AM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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shiddle,

I don’t know whether you have looked at the information sheet by opening the file “Simple_2020” in One Drive on your browser.
That sheet gives a run down on selection process and how the systems is bet on. Is there something more explicit that I can help
with?
Cheers
__________________
One Drive


“Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn.”
“If the plan doesn’t work, change the plan, but never the goal.”
“Let us learn to appreciate there will be times when the trees will be bare, and look forward to the time when we may pick the fruit.”
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  #30  
Old 13th July 2020, 02:54 PM
shiddle shiddle is offline
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Gritz,
Thanks for the reply, i will have a read tonight.
Cheers
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