OK so what about going the other way then and make the price range say $4.50 - $7.00 (or maybe even $8.00) and see what happens then? Does the strike rate/profit drop much?

This is getting interesting and I'm sorry I can't help you with the 'sifting' but I don't have the results in front of me like you do.

__________________
Regards

I tell you what. I'll post the results so you can look at them for yourself. I can't do it right now though. Got to go. :smile:

Thanks sportznut for the workout

Okay Michael, here are the results using horses from outside barriers, which ran in the first 4 at their last 3 starts in this preparation and are $3-$7 pre-post. I've included their pre-post prices for you to look at.

Nov21 Cran 7-2 Cosmic Coincidence (4.00f) WON 3.20/1.50
Nov23 SCst 7-11 Order Arms (7.00) PLA 1.90
Nov23 Warr 5-1 Bigtime Charlie (3.20f) WON 4.30/1.80
Nov24 Pake 5-7 Fontana Delle Api (3.50f) WON 2.70/1.30
Nov24 Pake 9-2 Legalese (3.50f) WON 5.60/1.70
Nov24 Quir 7-1 Kaysean D’Sunshine (6.00) PLA 1.80
Nov26 Sydn 5-6 Raid And Rule (4.60) UNP
Nov26 Sydn 7-2 Lodgent (3.00f) PLA 1.30
Nov27 Rock 7-5 Fiery Femme (7.00) WON 8.60/2.40
Nov28 Bris 3-1 Wind Talker (4.00f) PLA 2.10
Nov29 Sydn 8-1 This Manshood (6.50) WON 10.40/3.10
Nov29 Melb 6-2 Bohemian Dancer (3.50f) PLA 2.10
Nov30 Wodo 4-5 Murray’s Mate (3.50) UNP
Dec4 Town 8-2 Borzov (4.00f) PLA 2.40
Dec5 Bris 7-2 Iceni (6.00) UNP
Dec6 Melb 6-2 Karasi (7.00) UNP
Dec7 Canb 4-2 Red Robert (3.00f) PLA 1.70
Dec7 Staw 5-10 Harryallard’s Lane (7.00) WON 3.20/1.80
Dec9 Mack 3-1 Canny Fella (3.50f) WON 4.40/1.50
Dec12 Canb 7-8 Patient Planet (4.00) UNP
Dec12 Rock 3-3 O’Mine (4.00) UNP
Dec13 Bris 4-4 Kavorka (7.00) UNP
Dec13 Sydn 7-8 Gallant Son (5.50f) UNP
Dec14 SCst 7-8 Keep The Race (7.00) UNP
Dec14 Melb 5-3 Wild Classic (4.00f) WON 8.80/2.50
Dec18 Sydn 3-1 Air Of Grace (3.00f) PLA 1.50
Dec19 Goul 6-5 Mitigate (3.40f) PLA 1.60
Dec20 Bris 5-3 Red Mile (5.00f) UNP
Dec20 Bris 6-5 Helter Skelter (5.00) UNP
Dec20 Adel 5-5 Kooda Hurry (5.50) UNP
Dec22 Dubb 1-9 Wait For Me (6.00) PLA 2.20
Dec22 Tamw 5-1 Opal Chip (3.00f) WON 1.80/1.10
Dec23 Bena 5-5 Uncle Speed (4.00) WON 4.30/1.80
Dec27 Bris1-6 Crimson Gown (7.00) WON 13.00/3.70
Dec27 Melb 8-2 Dare To Be Proud (5.50) WON 3.60/1.70
Dec28 PLin 3-4 Rural Forest (5.50) WON 4.90/1.70
Dec28 Warrn 1-11 Kissy (3.80f) PLA 1.60
Dec29 MGam 5-4 Vorodomyr (5.00) PLA 1.30
Dec30 Rock 6-4 Valhulla (7.00) UNP
Dec30 CHbr 4-2 Sensache (6.00) UNP
Dec31 Sydn 6-4 For Valour (5.50) PLA 1.50
Jan1 GCst 6-2 King’s Request (5.00) UNP
Jan3 Bris 5-3 Queen Amidala (3.20f) PLA 1.60
Jan3 Adel 3-1 Pride Of Archway (4.00f) PLA 1.80
Jan7 GCst 6-1 Dellwood Dancer (3.50) UNP
Jan8 Melb 7-1 Halo Amore (3.00f) WON 4.20/1.60
Jan8 Dubb 1-6 Wait For Me (5.00) PLA 1.40
Jan9 Tamw 6-4 Ancient Mariner (3.20) PLA 2.40
Jan9 Town 4-7 Pentecost (6.00) UNP
Jan10 Melb 4-7 Fairweather (5.50) PLA 1.80
Jan10 Melb 8-2 Sand Belt (4.00f) UNP
Jan11 SCst 3-2 Finder Page (4.00f) PLA 1.40
Jan11 SCst 4-4 Aurora Anora (7.00) WON 7.70/2.30
Jan13 Kyne 4-1 Bolters Show (4.00) UNP
Jan14 Melb 4-3 Miabondialee (6.50) PLA 2.40
Jan15 Morn 9-10 Super Boom (6.00) PLA 3.60
Jan16 Melb 6-3 Bunfight (4.00f) PLA 1.60
Jan17 Syd 2-2 Air Of Grace (6.00) UNP
Jan20 Cess 5-3 Sky Channon (4.00) UNP
Jan20 Sale 7-5 Sonic Flight (7.00) PLA 4.60
Jan22 Sydn 2-6 Stay Seated (6.00) UNP
Jan23 Wodo 6-3 Peace And Harmony (3.20f) PLA 1.70
Jn23 MGam 7-7 More Beer (5.50) UNP
Jan24 Melb 7-3 Pretty Pinay (4.60f) UNP
Jan24 Adel 5-4 Missy Vivian (3.20) PLA 1.50
Jan24 Adel 7-5 Dancing Image (7.00) UNP
Jan26 Wagg 2-8 Gangway (5.00) WON 3.70/1.90
Jan27 Town 5-1 Peckjata (3.50) PLA 1.40
Jan29 Geel 5-6 Sweet Spot (6.00) UNP
Jan29 Mack 8-2 Red Bay (4.00) PLA 4.20
Jan30 Tera 6-4 Swift Mookta (5.00) PLA 1.40
Jan31 Adel 4-1 Outback Lad (3.50) PLA 1.10

Horses shorter than $3 didn't do well and when they did win they were too short to make any money from them. Horses longer than $7 didn't seem to do that great, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't produce the odd longshot winner in the future however. I must say though, that based on tests that I have done in the past, if you want to bet on horses longer than $7, you should maybe look for horses which have finished in the first 4 at their last FOUR starts.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-03 08:55 ]

Thanks for that Sportz and I'll leave you alone now.

Sorry if I was asking too many questions but you do seem to be getting lots of forum-ites excited about these system ideas of yours :smile:

__________________
Regards

That's okay Michael! I'm happy to help.

It's just that I might end up so busy working out systems and things for other people, I don't actually have enough time to have a bet myself!!! :lol:

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-03 11:35 ]

Hi Sportz, I've had a bit of a look at the results you so kindly posted (your keyboard skills are impressive but I admit to not being too shoddy myself) and have noticed an interesting pattern even though its only early days so far.

---------------------------------------------
PrePost Price range: $3.00- $4.00
Total Selections: 34

Total Wins: 9 (26.5% win strike rate)
Win Returns: $39.30
Win Profit: $5.30 (15.62% POT)

Total Placings: 27 (79.4% Place strike rate)
Place Returns: $47.80
Place Profit: $13.80 (40.6% POT) :smile:

---------------------------------------------
PrePost Price range: $4.10- $6.90
Total Selections: 27

Total Wins: 4 (14.8% win strike rate)
Win Returns: $22.60
Win Loss: $4.40 (16.30% LOT)

Total Placings: 13 (48.1% Place strike rate)
Place Returns: $25.80
Place Loss: $1.20 (4.4% LOT)

---------------------------------------------
PrePost Price range: $7.00
Total Selections: 11

Total Wins: 4 (36.4% win strike rate)
Win Returns: $32.50
Win Profit: $21.50 (195.45% POT):smile:

Total Placings: 6 (54.5% Place strike rate)
Place Returns: $16.70
Place Profit: $5.70 (51.8% POT) :smile:
---------------------------------------------

So, pretty interesting huh?

$3.00-$4.00 is profitable AND consistent (as a lot of the selections are from the outside barrier system anyway so this should be expected) while the mid range ($4.10-$6.90) made a loss on both win & place even though the loss was only small on the place and probably could have broken even depending on the state you bet in.

The real 'head turner' was the $7.00 price which turned in a big profit for the win (with a 36% win strike rate) and a good profit for the place even though the place strike rate was down (almost 52%).

Crimson Gown at $13.00 contributed most to the profit although it's these type of winners we all look to to indeed make our profits.

Would adding selections at $8.00 have added or detracted from these results do you think?

I, for one, prefer the more stable results coming from the lower price range even though, in this period, the extra selections (ie those NOT Outside Barrier selections) resulted in 5 placings from 12 bets giving a return of $10.60 and a loss of $1.40 mainly thanks to Red Bay on Jan29 which paid $4.20!

It will be interesting to see how these 'extra' selections go over the coming months as I would like to add them to the Outside Barrier selections mainly because you can get a few more bets. However, if they continue to under perform then they will be excluded.

It'll also be interesting to see if the mid range continues it's slump and if the $7.00 range continues on its merry way....guess only time will tell.

Hope all this helps someone out there.

__________________
Regards

Oops, sorry I took a bit of time to reply to your post Michael.

To answer your question, I would suggest that the lesser results for $4.10-$6.90 is probably just an anomoly and results should even out in time. As an example, today at Tamworth, R6-2 Auri was $6.00 pre-post and won paying 6.70/2.10. You beauty!!! :smile:

As for those extra selections between $3 and $4, I wouldn't actually recommend you add them to the Outside Barrier Specials. I know it's a bit frustrating not having many bets, but adding those runners will almost certainly lower the strike rate and profit.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-06 17:49 ]

Sportz,
I marked the ************ thing this morning, but was that happy with my early results I shut the betting sites down and forgot all about it :sad:

No way I was going to forget about Auri. It was one of my best bets today! :smile: