Shaun,
It's actually 100 days since the start of the test period, so about 4 bets a week.

Kenchar,
I've done a check and some of the winners hadn't even been placed first-up before. Having said that, horses with a good first-up strike rate were a bit more consistent, so I've used a rule that I often use for first-uppers to try to sort out the best bets:

At least 3 first-up starts, and at least 50% wins or 75% placings from those starts.
Nov20 CHbr 7-3 Papal Prince UNP
Nov29 Adel 4-5 She's My Baby WON 3.00/1.60
Dec13 Adel 8-4 Crest Of Gold WON 2.50/1.40
Jan23 Melb 4-5 Yell UNP
Jan25 MGam 2-2 Andalan WON 2.00/1.10
Jan27 Bena 8-1 Majestic Flush UNP
Jan28 Sydn 5-3 Beryl WON 5.50/1.90
Feb3 Melb 3-2 Penny Opera WON 3.70/1.40
Feb7 Melb 5-1 Lonhro WON 1.70/1.20
Feb11 Sydn 7-6 Derby Parade WON 7.50/2.30
Feb14 Sydn 6-1 Private Steer WON 3.10/1.50
Feb14 Sydn 7-3 Sportsman WON 17.40/3.70
Feb15 Colac 8-4 Ski Rebel PLA 1.50

Looks good!!! :smile:


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-02 13:25 ]

hi sportz, the unitab ratings are a good guide as u say and here is one that i have found seems to produce a place strike rate of over 50 % and ave divi around $2.50.
it also gets some good price winners but dont have stats on winners.
look at 3rd and 4th raters take the longest price of the two on unitab just prior to jump time providing it is$5.00+for the win.
if there are 2 on the same rating that counts as one.
i use it only on saturday but it may well work on other days as well.

Sounds a bit like Kenchar's place strategy. Might be worth a look.

I checked another month on the original system which produced two winners and a LS profit of 11 units.
That's 92 units profit over 6 months.
I'll continue on until I've done 12 months.
Both winners, Sportz, had won at the distance.
Please note that I've made a minor amendment to the original post eliminating races where 3 horses qualify. It's only happened 2 or 3 times in the six months.

Good going. Yeah, I think if you deleted those that hadn't won at the distance, your overall strike rate would probably improve. The only thing is whether you would delete any really good priced winners by doing that.

Sportz or Jacfin.....do either of you have a LINK ADDRESS for the unitab ratings? I've had a bit of a look around but can't seem to find it. :???: And, do you need to be a registered member or anything to gain access?

__________________
Regards

Also, on the distance thing...what about horses that won or PLACED at the distance OR won or PLACED within 100m (+ or -) of todays race distance? I know it's a bit harder to research but it might grab those selections eliminated by the strictly c or d rule?

__________________
Regards

Michael,

Totally free and VERY easy to use:
http://www.tabonline.com.au/default.stm

Simply click on Racing, then click on the race you want and the ratings are on the right side of the screen. :smile:

It is pretty time consuming to check past results because each race has to accessed.
If we are thinking of checking each weekday perhaps we could have some volunteers and split the load.

On 2004-03-02 12:12, michaelv wrote:
Also, on the distance thing...what about horses that won or PLACED at the distance OR won or PLACED within 100m (+ or -) of todays race distance?



Michael, I started checking my first-up system and I soon came to the conclusion that your idea would produce many more bets but not a lot more winners. I think if we stick simply to Distance winners, we should do okay. Alternatively, we could be very patient and just wait for the 'specials'. 9 wins from 13 bets looks promising!

Kenchar, thanks a lot for asking about those first-up strike rates. :smile:


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-02 14:04 ]