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  #1  
Old 12th June 2011, 10:45 AM
moeee moeee is offline
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Default Sunday Sandown and Sale

SANDOWN Race 5

2 COOLAN MISS $3.8
4 LIESEL $6
8 TOTAL REBELLION $7
6 ALPINE PLAYER $7
3 MY JABULANI $10
1 COOLANGATTA GOLD $12.5
5 LOADED MISSILE $14
7 SPELLBOUND $25
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  #2  
Old 12th June 2011, 11:36 AM
moeee moeee is offline
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SANDOWN Race 6

1 BLING IT ON $2.9
2 ZURI DIAMOND $6.6
3 YORGI MILO $8
8 LONG GULLY ARCH $8
5 GIGIT $9.
7 CRUISE AWAY LASS $16
6 MAJOR MONOGRAM $16
4 FAWN MAGIC $40
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  #3  
Old 12th June 2011, 01:16 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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SANDOWN Race 8

5 MARIO CHIEF $3.2
3 HOODED KEATS $5.3
7 BOUNCER NORRIS $7.5
1 SIR LEE $12
8 PETER'S PROJECT $12
4 GOLD RUSH MAX $13
6 COOL LENNY $14
2 ARMAGEDDON $16
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  #4  
Old 12th June 2011, 02:43 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
SANDOWN Race 5

2 COOLAN MISS $3.8
4 LIESEL $6
8 TOTAL REBELLION $7
6 ALPINE PLAYER $7
3 MY JABULANI $10
1 COOLANGATTA GOLD $12.5
5 LOADED MISSILE $14
7 SPELLBOUND $25

splits adjusted to Meadows
1 5.056
2 5.047
3 5.148
4 5.143
5 5.103
6 5.121
7 5.147
8 5.107
The #2 has the best 2nd sectionals, a lot will depend at the start, #8 should be good value.
2,8,5 for mine
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  #5  
Old 12th June 2011, 03:03 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Default 3rd Tier Times

Woof43
I been considering using the Tier 3 Times as a standard to align animals performances.
The major problem is there ain't none for Interstate Tracks.
Do you know how they are calculated?
Do you think there are better Time Standards to use?
I know Track Records aren't the answer.
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  #6  
Old 12th June 2011, 03:21 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Woof43
I been considering using the Tier 3 Times as a standard to align animals performances.
The major problem is there ain't none for Interstate Tracks.
Do you know how they are calculated?
Do you think there are better Time Standards to use?
I know Track Records aren't the answer.


Track records are one of the answers Moee, There are 3 speed crosshairs, Fixed , Relative and Moving.

Fixed is the Track record, Relative and Moving is the Winners time, and then the Time of the animal it's self.

The above method is very complicated, and to explain would take ages, whereas the other "dirty" or "proof" method is to look back at results for each track look for dogs that are 1-2 at the first split and complete the race barring any interference, then look back at their form for the last month and find if they have a similar performance at a different track, then write that down and do the same process for as many dogs as you can before you get sick an tired. Then you should have a pretty good figure.
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  #7  
Old 12th June 2011, 03:41 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Track Records aren't the answer Woof43.
If an animal that ran 2 lengths outside the Track Record at Shepparton was competing against an animal that ran 2 lengths outside the Track Record at Geelong , I would say the Geelong animal would be much better.
And thats because a Higher Class of animal runs at Geelong , therefore the Track Record is harder to reach.

Now rub out Track Record and insert Tier 3 Standard Times , and I would figure that both animals are of equal ability.

Woof43.
Somebody sent me an Excel Results Chart that he probably wouldn't mind if I sent a copy to you.
May I email it to you and could you have a bit of a look at it when you get a Chance and let me know if it is an excellent idea for me , considering I keep zero Records at all.
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  #8  
Old 12th June 2011, 04:01 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Thats ok send it thru I'll scan over it for you.

Moee you need to use track records with a thing called "marginal speed" this is the rate of deceleration for every additional metre raced.

consider Meadows and Traralgon split times
We know this is straight speed.
Meadows split measures 70.55 metres 4.94 TR
Cranbourne measures 77.4 metres 5.28 TR

77.4 -70.55 = 6.85
5.28 - 4.94 = .340
20.147
the reciprocal of the above number is 1/20.147 = .049635
additional distance 6.85 multiplied by .049635 = +.3399

So if you repeated the above for every track and recorded the reciprocal (.049635) number you would end up with a Universal number that can compute every straight split distance without any problems at all.

When we do the turns its just a matter of using a centripetal formula which invloves just knowing the radius of the turns.
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  #9  
Old 12th June 2011, 05:49 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Default spreadsheet

Just had a quick look, Moee

The top selection is in profit, but the strike rate win % is very tight, a few losses and it falls into a Loss, 2nd and 3rd appear to be losing, with the 3rd selection is performing badly.

Is this your results? can't imagine you selecting in some of those meetings.
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  #10  
Old 12th June 2011, 06:01 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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No they not my results.
I keep no records.
But I will soon.

Can you see the sheet as being a valuable tool?
And because I am very selective usually on the races I study , I figure my sample of Results will be fairly consistent.

How many Race Results do you think I will need before an accurate Picture appears?
I'm figuring on about 100.
Thats for the Win Part only , not the Exotics.
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