Hi all,

A few of you may know of me, as the provider of tennis analysis for the Smartgambler Pro-Punter members. I have been providing tennis pricing and analysis for members for over 6 years.

This French Open we have an odds on pop (Nadal) attempting to extend his unbeaten run at Roland Garros (yep, he's NEVER been beaten here). But this year we have had a tighter lead up period, as evidenced by seven players pulling out before they were due to play - this may extend as the event progresses, especially as a number of players will be playing best of 5 set matches each day (due to the rain delays in the first three days of the event). Is Nadal vulnerable? Personally I have him rated as the best bloke in the draw by miles, however I do have his rating lower than last year and his lead up form has caused a slight decrease in his rating over the last few months. Let's not forget he had quite serious foot blisters a few weeks ago and to win 7 best of five sets matches is a big ask.

Personally I do think he will win again, but maybe there is a slight chink in his armour.

The draw does say Djokovic plays Nadal in one Semi with Federer playing Ferrer, Stepanek or Davydenko (in that order) in the other.

What do other people think? Have any of you had outright bets on this event?

H2H betting I think Karlovic is a special tonight (even given the heavy wet conditions) and will be watching all other matches but not punting.

If you are interested in my analysis of every match being played at the French Open, have a look at how you can recieve the info on the page http://www.propun.com.au/free_betti...ums_tennis.html

Cheers

Tony

Backed Robredo at 500s and Youzhny at 1000s

Both very juicy prices Chuck and I hope they can go deep into the draw for you.

Youzhny has made the Semis of a Slam (US Open in 2006) and made the 4th round here last year so certainly has the mettle to make it late into a Slam draw.

Having said that his lead up form has been a bit off and I've actually personally backed Maximo Gonzalez to cause an upset tonight at the 5.75. However if you've taken 1000-1 you only need a small stake on Max Gonzo to cover your intial bet.

Robredo has made at least the fourth round of a Slam 12 times and six of his last 7 here he's made the fourth round or the quarter finals - his only "failure" being 2002 when he was knocked out by Agassi in the third round. Does seem to struggle beyong the Quarters but hey if you have one of the last 8 standing at 500-1 you should be able to make a book around that (of course hoping that either or both of Nadal and Federer have been knocked out already).

I always like to break the draw into quarters and attempt to find the four Semi Finalists, backing one or two at nice prices, hoping they make it to the last 8 or so and then making a book around them.

This year the top quarter does look as though Federer will make it and you don't need to be a rocket scientist to call that. Since being knocked out in R3 here in 2004 he's at least made the Semis in the subsequent 15 Grand Slams, winning 10 of them and making the Final twice more. If he has to go under then Gonzo, Wawrinka and Soderling the most likely.

Next chunck of the draw I believe is the open section with Ferrer, Stepanek (who beat Federer in Rome), Davydenko and Robredo the most likely. On ratings I have Hewitt in that mix, however with no lead up form I'm discounting him. This is the section of the draw where some value may come. Davydenko the 4th shortest in the market at 44.0 (Betfair). Stepanek at 510.0 at Betfair look tempting as if he does play Federer in the Semis people will be taking the Rome result into account and you may get a fair price Federer (none of the 1.01 rubbish that goes on day in day out).

Third section sees Djokovic the one and I actually have him a shorter price than Federer to win the whole event - his issue is going to be beating Nadal in the Semis. Outside of Djokovic I actually have Lapentti, Bolelli then Blake, which shows the lack of depth in this section. Having said that Lapentti did make the Semis of the Aussie Open back in 1999 and the Quarters of Wimbledon in 2002 so he's no slouch. If Djokovic's body cracks (which it has been known to do) maybe the iron Ecquadorian can take advantage in the quarters.

Bottom section sees Nadal at a prohibitive price to get through, with only Almagro, Nalbandian and Verdasco the others with any show of making the Semis.

No genius here but I'll call Federer to beat Ferrer in one Semi and Nadal to beat Djokovic in the other, with Nadal making it 28 wins and zero losses at this event in the Final.

Of course my opinion only and all are welcome.

For my prices and comments on every match of the French see the link below.

Cheers

Tony

Before the Tourny i came up with this for the round of 16:

Federer
v
Soderling
----------------
Warinkla
v
Serra
----------------
Davydenko
v
Monfils
----------------
Robredo
v
Ferrer
----------------
Tipsarevic
v
Berdych
----------------
Mathieu
v
Djokovic
----------------
Garcia Lopez
v
Amalgro
----------------
Youzhny
v
Nadal

going well at the moment, berdych the only real disaster


i think Ferrer is a chance to go soon, i dont think he will make the semis. i just backed Monfils at 800s i think hes a wildcard chance

Bolleli looks to have a gift road to the quarters, just got him at 350s and should be able to lay off once he beats Blake

Great call Tony "Max Gonzo a chance" - chance my ar*e, is competitive for three games, can't hold his serve and gets thumped 63,63,62 - well good luck to Chuck who is on Youzhny for a decent pay day.

Bottom section (top part thereof) of the draw is very interesting and if Djokovic can't make the Semis it will proove once and for all that he needs soft runs to the end of events.

Gulbis vs Lapentti
Bolelli vs Llodra
Schwaaa (they don't let me publish this blokes real name here) vs Mathieu
Odesnik vs Djokovic

If you take Nadal out of the equation then Djokovic last lost to a left handed player two years ago (Verdasco in Hamburg in 2006) so Odesnik and Llodra should not proove any problems here. Could the new Argy on the block Schw**** push the local or even push Djokovic? Could the best Italian we've seen for a while go deep into the draw?

Great to see Latvian vs Ecquadorian, a couple of lefties and a couple of youngsters. A great part of the draw.

Probably turn out boring with Djokovic creaming them all.

Cheers

Tony

I think Nadal - Djokovic semi-final would be an incredible game.

Federer's best chance of finally winning in Paris would be for Djokovic to beat Nadal.
I reckon Federer is psyched out by the combination of Nadal and clay, and playing Djokovic in the Final would enable him to play his best.

But Nadal is just a monster player on the surface, he lifts his game when playing Federer.

Only one Quarter Final each and you'll get your dream Semi Final Shonegg.

I do price both those guys quite short to win their Quarters (although you wouldn't need to be a rocket scientist to do so), and in all reality they should win them. The other side has an interesting section with Ljubicic, Monfils, Stepanek and Ferrer all playing for a Semi Final berth, where they'll likely meet Federer (who should beat Benneteau and Gonzalez to make the Semis of a Slam yet again).

Maybe we'll get a little more variety at Wimbledon, where full comments and pricing for every match will also be available, together with all the info for the lead up events in Queens, Halle, Nottingham and 's-Hertogenbosch, as well as the new clay event in Warsaw. Info on how to receive all the info FREE of charge, visit the link I posted in the first post below.

Cheers

Tony

Any thoughts on the womens winner or do you only concentrate on the mens matches?

Anybody know what Safina was paying tonight? I thought she had some sort of chance against Sharapova, but I was busy today and forgot to check out the odds in time.

I see Sharapova's won the first set and Safina's up a break in the 2nd.

backed ivanovic at $4 before Sharapova lost....and backed Azarenka at 120s at the start of the tourny, shes into 36 now

still got to cover my losses on robredo and youzhny, but monfils is also into 160s after i backed him at 800s

Damn!!!