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  #21  
Old 15th April 2005, 09:38 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Ohhh, you beat me to it in your last post. Is it sort of like spread betting then?
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  #22  
Old 15th April 2005, 11:34 AM
Rock Steady Rock Steady is offline
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Index betting at so many dollars per point.

For example, I have taken Supremacy 9 points Richmond at $50 per point.

If Richmond lose by 9 points I am square.

For every point that Richmond better that, then I win $50 per point. eg Richmond win the game by 20 points I win (20+9) * $50 equals $1450.

If Fremantle win by 20 points, I lose (20-9)*$50 = $550.
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  #23  
Old 15th April 2005, 11:43 AM
Rock Steady Rock Steady is offline
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Supremacy betting is highly leveraged both ways. You can win or lose a lot of money.

I like to back dogs at the Supremacy line when I think they can win the match without the start. That way I can get a decent result.

Last year in Round 4 was a good example of a Supremacy bet that went the right way for me. I backed Melbourne at Supremacy 15 points @ $50 to beat Port Adelaide at the MCG.
Melbourne won the match by 53 points so the Supremacy collect was (15+53)*$50 equals $3400. Mind you I have been wrong and got beaten by 60 when only getting 8 points Supremacy there fore I lose 52 times my Supremacy stake.
This form of betting has been around since at least 1979 when I started betting on VFL as it was known then. I'm surprised more people don't use it - it is HUGE in the USA. Back in 1979 you had to go through your local underground agent though but you always got paid.
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  #24  
Old 15th April 2005, 11:45 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rock Steady
Index betting at so many dollars per point.

For example, I have taken Supremacy 9 points Richmond at $50 per point.

If Richmond lose by 9 points I am square.

For every point that Richmond better that, then I win $50 per point. eg Richmond win the game by 20 points I win (20+9) * $50 equals $1450.

If Fremantle win by 20 points, I lose (20-9)*$50 = $550.


Ohhh, it's that last line which shows why I don't think I'd ever try that type of bet. Certainly not for more than just a couple of dollars anyway.

Last edited by Sportz : 15th April 2005 at 11:48 AM.
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  #25  
Old 15th April 2005, 12:04 PM
Rock Steady Rock Steady is offline
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Hey Sportz,
You gotta take the good with the bad so long as you are in front at the end of the season - that's all that matters.
For Supremacy bets I rarely bet more than $50 per point. The maximum you can win or lose is around $5000 by betting at $50 per point. You can employ a Stop/Loss point as well. You can say for example, I want the bet to cease when I'm losing 100 points. That way, you know what your maximum exposure is and you can set your working capital appropriately.
I start each season with seperate banks for Win betting, Start betting and Supremacy betting. The Supremacy bank starts at $15K so I can withstand three consequtive 100 point hidings before I'm out of play. It hasn't happened yet.
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  #26  
Old 15th April 2005, 12:37 PM
Rock Steady Rock Steady is offline
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Only other plays for me this weekend are:

Hawthorn +23 Index with GlobalSportsbet $30 per point.
Hawthorn +25.5 Line Bet GlobalSportsbet $300 @ $1.95 "Mad Friday" Line.

My model rates Hawthorn a 31% winning probability so there is a 69% chance that Brisbane will win but the value at those computations lies with the Hawks.

Geelong $1.432 WIN ONLY with Pinnacle $1200 to collect $1718.

Geelong rated a 75% ($1.33) winning chance so a win bet is required at $1.43
I never give start away so will not participate in the Supremacy or Line bets.

Good luck to everyone.
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  #27  
Old 15th April 2005, 01:33 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rock Steady
I never give start away so will not participate in the Supremacy or Line bets.


Good idea. Neither do I. I will certainly back favourites to win, but I won't back them at the line conceding a start. I think I must be a bit like you in that regard. I prefer to look for underdogs which I believe have a genuine show of winning and then back them with the start.
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  #28  
Old 15th April 2005, 03:11 PM
mug punta mug punta is offline
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Sportz, I used to bet a lot on the index but you can get burnt.
One thing the bookies will do is cap it for you if you wish.
So, you could say cap it to win a maximum of $200 and a maximum loss of $200.
That is good for the heart, but, the adrenalin associated with index betting is pretty exciting.
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  #29  
Old 15th April 2005, 03:19 PM
mug punta mug punta is offline
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Rocksteady; Fremantle may well win this game but at $2.50 Richmond has got me as well as the points spread and Supremacy plays as follows:

RICHMOND is never a good bet at $2.50 and I don't care who they are playing.
Of course, the players aren't machines but if you match the two teams on paper I can't see Richmond getting near 'em.
You simply seem convinced they are fatigued. It's only round 4 and all the teams have the best fitness advisors to work around such things and try and ensure the players are ready for game day.
If the tiges prevail I will dip my cap and congratulate you on some great picking, but, I just reckon it's a real long shot.

If i was picking a roughie the Pies at $2.40 would appear better value to me.
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  #30  
Old 15th April 2005, 07:27 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rock Steady
moeee,
I KNOW Richmond are a poor side but I also know Fremantles MCG record is 4-15 and I think the last two weeks will catch up with them.


Either Im'm mistaken or someone lied,but I heard the Dockers won their last 3 at the M.C.G.
Good Luck regardless.I reckon you need it more than me doggie man!
Thank GOD for footy or I'd be skint.
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