Dont jump on the saints yet. The last 8 games were all against current bottom 8 sides. Wait until they come up against a good top 8 side before putting $'s on them. I wouldnt include Geelong as a good example lol. There form has been shocking expect stkilda to smash them.

Okee Dokee,
Here's my AFL action for Rd 19

Saints 'ON FIRE' vs 'LACKLUSTER' Cats @ $1.22
Eagles 'TOO STRONG' vs 'IMPROVING' Doggies @ $1.55
Crows 'AT HOME' vs 'DEPLETED' Demons @ $1.16
Power 'UP AND DOWN LIKE A WHORES KNICKERS' vs 'HAPPLESS' Carlton @ $1.65

Multi @ Centre = $3.62
Although not a big multi fan any of the above selections should do you proud.
Saints and Power combo = even money - not a bad bet

whats the satistical certaincy for those bets

have you got any stats to back these up, because i think that was what this thread was about

Yeah, all those teams could certainly win, but there's not actually any huge statistical advantage for saying so. For example, Geelong have won 7 of the past 10 against the Saints.

Sure,

Saints record at telstra dome is enviable, they have most if not all key players back from injury. As for Geelong, King and Mooney are out. King especially as he would most likely dominate the clearances giving Geelong first use. Mooney's loss means less flexibility and Ottens will have to cover in the ruck diminishing what is already struggling Cats forward line - by their own admission. The last five games played by each team spit out the following win/loss info:

Saints: W W W W W ave score = 138
Geelong: L L W L W ave score = 96.4

Granted both teams have played inferior opposition but the Saints have thrashed the teams they have played whereas Geelong have beaten Hawthorn and Port, both at Skilled Stadium.

For me stats are great at telling me what has happened in the past however not always transferable to next week. It also depends how and what you would want to see in them. For instance 7 of 10 wins to the Cats suggests to me that sooner rather than later the Saints will win. However to someone else they say the Cats have the ascendency and therefore should win.

As for my other selections:

Eagles are far and away the most consistent team in the land this season. Refer to any stats you wish. I expect them to be too strong for a resurgent Bulldogs. Too much class and depth in most key positions. The MCG is said to be an achilles heel for the Eagles, i am not convinced. They lost to the Pies in round 9, a freakish performance by the Pies in the context of their year to date. They then beat Melbourne convincingly there in round 13 when the Dees were second on the ladder. I think i'll call it even.

The Crows are possibly the most improved team this year. The demons are in a massive slump and with the loss of Bruce, Green and Neitz they will not have the midfield or strike power to trouble the tightest defence around at the moment, particularly at AAMI.

As for the power, well i just can not tip Carlton, no matter how well they played last weekend. Port are having a miserable season but they should have too much class for Carlton, if and only if they feel like playing. I don't think stats will help anyone here.

Statistically sound - perhaps not. If you guys have info that would contradict or improve on my reasoning please post so i can re-assess.

As I said, those 4 teams could certainly all win. Not arguing that. But there's not actually any overwhelming statistical basis for picking them.

i don' think there's any major statistical selections this week for AFL or NRL

OK Guys,

Hows about this:

Crows vs Demons
Crows have won 9 of last 10 matches.
Demons have won 4 of last 10, lost last six in a row by an average of 48.
Crows have won last 7 of 10 at AAMI.
Demons have lost last 8 of 10 at AAMI.
Crows have won last 9 of 10 day games.
Demons have lost last 7 of 10 day games.
Demons have lost last 7 of 10 interstate games.

Average points scored last 10 matches.
Crows: 94
Demons: 97

Average points conceded last 10 matches.
Crows: 65
Demons: 112

Average points at AAMI.
Crows: 83
Demons: 77

Head to Head at AAMI.
Crows: 5
Demons: 2

No Neitz, Bruce or Green.
Statistical Certs?


Wait for it

Yes, but they're also only paying $1.16. Personally, I do agree that they will almost certainly win and probably by a good margin.