Hi, I've just read this weeks Propun newsletter. The Flemington straight and track bias was blasted again.

I do not dispute that the track has these traps on occasions, but surely the smart form student takes this into account. Yes, it is another variable which can be even more erratic than Melbournes weather. But look at the results for the past 3 years taken from "The Sportsman" for 1000, 1100 & 1200 mt races.

B 1000 1100 1200 total
1 8 3 10 21
2 9 4 8 21
3 9 4 10 23
4 6 6 3 15
5 10 1 5 16
6 9 3 9 21
7 8 6 8 22
8 7 7 7 21
9 2 3 6 11
10 5 4 2 11
11 5 1 4 10
12 1 3 3 7

(where do the spaces go to?)

13 to 16 gave 9 wins in total.

Hardly indicates consistent bias. Maybe the problem is the bias is random, thus over time it evens out. Which doesn't help on individual days.

With regard to Thorn Park and Innovation Girl, I rated them equal (+/-1) on form. Innitially I was going to skip the race, then reviewed Flemington barrier records.
Innovation Girl t (5) 19 wins
Thorn Park (9) 8 wins

Innovation Girl got the nod because of barrier, track winner and that it was Thorn Parks 1st start in Melbourne.

It was a gamble at 6/4. 2/1 was my estimate, so next time they meet I'll be extra cautious.

Just the thoughts from another victim of the forum jinks.

good punting, Horce cents

[ This Message was edited by: Horse cents on 2003-02-05 12:47 ]

I agree astute form students may use this bias to some slight advantage especially if they keep records of the the results in relation to the rail position.