Welcome guys

Hoping to provide ATP Tour selections and writeups on a continual basis, hopefully with the same success as last season. Last year was my first year posting plays and as you may already be aware they proved quite successful. I achieved a return on investment (ROI) of over 20% and was able to turn a profit on a weekly basis.

I do not use any specific systems nor do I believe in following specific trends, I just analyse each specific match individually, drawing from what I have uncovered over my years of playing and watching tennis.

As always I will be using a 1-10 unit staking system, with the average play being approximately 2-5 units.

Feel free to offer any support, whether it be constructive criticism or just a few words of wisdom. I'm always willing to gain expereince from other punters and hopefully together we can clean out the bookies.

Good luck and happy punting

Betsy

Just transfering this one across from the Tennis Betting thread.

Kiefer easily accounted for Arthurs (6-3 6-4) who never really looked in it.

Serbia and Montenegro vs. USA looks to be one of the better matchups on paper that the Hopman Cup has to offer. By rights this one should go down to the last match.

Djokovic is value at $2.65 against Taylor Dent. If the end of last season is anything to go by Djokovic will cause a few problems for alot of the big named players this year. He showed his talent at the '05 US Open where he accounted for Monfils and Ancic only to lose to Verdasco in 5 tight sets. My main concern is Dent's previous record (over the past two years) during the Australian summer swing. Dent has posted some great results at the commencement of the previous two seasons, including a finals appearance at Adelaide last year where he lost to an in form J Johansson. I see the match at about 55-45 in Dent's favour therefore value is with Djokovic.

I'm not sure if I will pull the trigger or not on this one but will let you know either way.

Good luck all

Djokovic has come right in to $2.20 at Centrebet from the $2.65 it opened at yesterday. I won't be playing this match as there are too many uncertainties and the value for Djokovic has dried up. A safer bet for the day looks to be Ivanovic to beat Lisa Raymond at $1.28.

No plays today

Good luck lads

Tomas Berdych over Agustin Calleri @ $1.44

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1.5 Units

Don't worry about their last match or Berdych's poor form early in 05, he has improved out of sight since then. The exciting thing is at only 20 years old he still has much to learn. Calleri, at 30 years old, is at home on clay. He holds a mere 5-9 win/loss record on hardcourt and should prove no match for the Czech.

James Blake over Alberto Martin @ $1.167

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 3 Units

The low price doesn't concern me here as this one is money for jam and the odds reflect that. In Blake's last five hardcourt tournaments he has won two and also made the final and quarters of two others. All three of Blake's losses were to players ranked inside the top ten (Federer, Roddick, Agassi).

Martin on the other hand is a handy claycourter but is far from at home on hardcourt. If you don't like these odds, you may want to place Blake in a parlay with Berdych to increase the odds. All I can say is that this is better than bank interest!

Other Leans include:

Chela over Karlovic @ $2.00 - Hate going against the big Croat but Chela is more than worth a shot at $2
Robredo over Melzer @ $1.77 - Melzer performed well at Adelaide last year but Robredo is value here, a class above Melzer

Good luck all

Berdych df. Calleri 6-4 6-7 6-4

As there is no live scoreboard for the Adelaide International if you want in game scores your best bet is to listen to ABC radio and wait for them to cross from the cricket to the tennis scores around Australia

Possibly going to play Haas over Wawrinka later this afternoon, will wait till closer to game time before locking it in though

Good luck all

Blake wins with ease, 6-3 6-3.

Papyrus - Will see you at MTF soon, it shouldn't take long to activate your account

thebookie - Thanks champ, that's easier than I imagined, and to think I just completed Specialist Maths last year


Nikolay Davydenko over C Rochus @ $1.20

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 2 Units

Another short priced fav here, doesn't worry me at all as this one is overs. Davydenko is by far the superior player here and comes up against the lesser of the Rochus brothers in what should be a routine victory for the Ukraine. Davydenko is an all surface player (maybe not grass), able to match it with the best on clay whilst boasting a 22-14 win/loss record on hardcourt. Last year he beat the likes of Hrbaty, Ancic, Gonzalez and Berdych on hardcourt and only really lost to quality players. Davydenko played well at this tournament last year, losing to the eventual winner (Federer) in the SF. On the other hand, Rochus showed glimpses of good form last year but never really showed anything that would make me think twice about this result. Davydenko in two.

Best of luck to you all

PS. If you don't like the odds then get stuffed (just kidding). You might like to place Wessels and Davydenko in a multi for odds around $1.50

Hi betsy

Happy new year and all the best to you and other forum tennis punters and I hope we all have a great punting year.

I will attempt to post my selections here as best I can. Telstra upgraded our telephone box and at least the dial-up is reliable but slow as snails. I haven't the time to post detailed explainations of each match.

I am busy now but will come back later in the week with an explanation of my selection methods.

Today I am on

Karlovic bt Carlsen $1.50 (Adelaide)
Hrbaty bt Phillipousis $1.36 (Adelaide)
Youzhny bt Sanguinetti $1.45 (Doha)
Ascione bt Behrend $1.65 (Chennai)
Tursanov bt El Anouyi $1.40???? (Doha)

All selection are from an age situation which is 215 wins - 81 losses since 2003 for an ROI of 5%.

This is my most marginal system and right on my minimum % so I am playing these selections for 1/2 unit only this year.

Karla

Hi Betsy,

Enjoy your posts, but, do you realise that a 60% chance equates to a price of $1.66?

So, by taking $1.46 you are taking way under the odds based on your assessment?

Thanks for that thebookie, my percentage estimate of Kiefer's chance of success was only an approximation and wasn't worked out by crunching numbers or anything like that. I've always wanted to know how to convert odds to percentages, I'm sure it's not too hard but I've never stopped and worked it out. Could you guide me in the right direction mate?