Just wondering how many of you guys concentrate on mutli betting only?

I do all my own prices for sporting events and was looking to start taking multi's over a wide range of events.

Is it simply a matter of still backing the "overs" when the chance of each event occurring is multiplied out, or is there more involved in terms of the probability?

Any advice is much appreciated.

Cheers,

thebookie

Keep your multis short and sweet is my suggestion.
2,3 or 4 selections only.

If your selections,for example,are calculated as being 50% chances and bookies are giving 45%,then you have an overlay of 10% on each.
If you combine say 3 of your selections in a multi,your calculated price would be 12.5%
And the bookies would be offering 9.1%
So the overlay with the 3 runners in a multi is 27%
You have increased your overlay but certainly decreased the probability of a collect.
Maybe you didn't understand?.Would you like me to clear up any misunderstandings,or would you prefer if I just clear off!

well we got no chance of you clearin orf so ya might as well clear it up :lol: ,,,They say that multis are no value chance wise the odds arent high enough

No, I understand completely.

Doesn't it make sense then, if your prices are accurate and you're using a decent staking plan and getting a bigger overlay, then your ROI will be greater?

The only thing I'm struggling with is that logically I know it's hard enough to find one winner, let alone multiple winners-how do you figure this in statistically?

Well there's a longshot come home.Somebody actually understands me!
Know,Bookie,that the shorter price you concieve your selection to be,that the more certain that you will get plenty of collects.
With the associated shorter run of outs.
As the price goes higher the chances of a return rise.Granted the return will be much more substantial,but the run of outs between collects grows.
And believe me,the run of outs really shatters your nerves big time.Might even wipe out your bank.

Tell you what I do.
The shorter my calculated price,the less overlay I chase.I mean getting 100 to 1 about a calculated 50 to 1 shot is a huge overlay,but can you see it as madness?

Test your math skills here.
I use this formula:
"My odds",multiplied by "my odds",multiplied by 0.15,plus "my odds"
Gee that looks ugly written like that so here's 2 examples.One at $1.60,and the other at $6.50

1.6 times 1.6 times 0.15 equals 0.384
Add 1.6 becomes $1.98 is the price I chase for my $1.60 selection.About 24% overlay

6.5 * 6.5 * 0.15 + 6.5 = $12.85
On this roughie,I am chasing a 100% overlay.
And my key to not going broke between collects is to put less on the rougher selections and more on the favoured ones.
Hopefully your staking plan provides for this.

Another thing about Multis.
Never put selections in your Multis that you consider are under the odds.
You can increase the price of the final dividend certainly,and still have an overall overlay,but you will decrease your overlay overall.
Now that that's all over I shall lay down!

Also there is a thread about my Multi experiences that you may find amusing.
If you use the search facility and look up multi with moeee as the author.

Thanks Mooee.

I am only new to the forum and there seem to be a few...umm... "interesting" "experts" on here hahaha

Don't worry mate, I have a "fair" idea of what's going on :wink:

I understand that multi's will provide a bigger overlay and greater variance.

And I also know that if anyone ever takes "unders" they should be shot!

I'm actually trialling a full kelly staking plan at the moment which seems to be what you've loosely based your plan on :wink:

Look forward to finding that thread...

That thread is called roll-your-owns and it is quite amusing as distinct from informative.

And all I can say is that Kelly ended up getting hanged for all his good intentions.
BEWARE!

Risk of ruin and of overbetting is huge for multis compared to betting singles.

In fact Mr J,an even money Multi comprised of 3 odds on chances is still an even money chance with no more risk than a single even money bet.