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  #5371  
Old 23rd June 2020, 11:08 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Aotearoa Round 3

Here we go with Round 3 of Aotearoa.

Itís hard to have good and bad luck average out with only two games per week, and maybe only one value bet, if that. When the Australian Super Rugby series starts, at least we will have four games per week.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc Super Rugby Round 10.doc (51.5 KB, 328 views)
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  #5372  
Old 30th June 2020, 11:43 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Aotearoa Round 4 and AU Round 1

Be cautious because we don't know how the layoff has affected the Australia teams. The Western Force are an even bigger mystery next week.

Here comes Round 4 of Aotearoa, complete with fans!

Good luck,

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc Super Rugby Round 11.doc (53.5 KB, 355 views)
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  #5373  
Old 7th July 2020, 10:29 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Aotearoa Round 5 and Australia Round 2

The Western Force now re-enters competition. I took their last rating from the end of the 2017 season, but we have no idea how good the team is today. It will take 3 or 4 games to have a good idea, so be cautious with them until later.

The rating system takes the season as a whole, not just the recent Aotearoa matches and the Australian matches
.
Good luck,

Ray Stefani
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  #5374  
Old 14th July 2020, 05:48 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby Round 13 (AOTEAROA Round 6 and AU Round 3)

There are many of reasons to be cautious when betting. We need at least this week and next week to get a good handle on the strengths of the Australian team, post-Covid. The Western Force havenít played recently. They have affected the Waratahs rating from last week and this week they will affect the Reds. After week 4, ratings ought to be more accurate. The whole season is counted.

The home teams have only outscored visitors by 6 points for the 14 games since we restarted. Thatís 0.4 points per game. That indicates a big change playing under Covid conditions. There had been more than a 4-point advantage per game, playing at home, before Covid. I may have to change the home advantage for the rest of the season.

Good luck and good health

Ray Stefani
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  #5375  
Old 20th July 2020, 06:27 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Wink

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
Here we go with another entertaining season.

Will the Sunwolves respond after having the World Cup to inspire them before they leave Super Rugby or will they be as inconsistent as last year.? We will soon know.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

We will never know Ray. The Sunwolves was disbanded on 1 June. They were in discussions to take part in the Super Rugby AU but due to travel restrictions were unable to do so.
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  #5376  
Old 20th July 2020, 07:11 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Those Sunwolves

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiz
Here we go with another entertaining season.
Will the Sunwolves respond after having the World Cup to inspire them before they leave Super Rugby or will they be as inconsistent as last year.? We will soon know.
Cheers,
Ray Stefani

We will never know Ray. The Sunwolves was disbanded on 1 June. They were in discussions to take part in the Super Rugby AU but due to travel restrictions were unable to do so.


I wrote that before Round 1. The Sunwolves started great in Round 1, winning over the Rebels. Then, in true Sunwolves fashion, they lost the next five before the season was halted, thanks to the toughest opponent ever, Covid. I kept the season rolling, statistically speaking, with AOTEAROA and AU competitions. The ratings are cumulative for all games played, including the rejuvenated Force. Here are all 16 ratings. The Sunwolves are last. Too bad. Like you wrote, we will never know if they could have had a comeback in AU competition..

Computer Ratings
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PLACE TEAM RATING
1 Crusaders(N) 106.4
2 Sharks(S) 104.3
3 Blues(N) 103.1
4 Hurricanes(N) 100.3
5 Jaguars 99.6
6 Stormers(S) 98.2
7 Chiefs(N) 97.4
8 Brumbies(A) 96.2
9 Reds(A) 94.0
10 Bulls(S) 90.3
11 Highlanders(N) 90.3
12 Rebels(A) 89.8
13 W.Force(A) 84.7
14 Waratahs(A) 82.9
15 Lions(S) 82.1
16 Sunwolves 67.1


Last edited by Raystef5845 : 20th July 2020 at 07:13 AM.
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  #5377  
Old 21st July 2020, 03:09 PM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby Round 14 (AOTEAROA Round 7, AU Round 4)

I mentioned a few weeks ago, that since restarting, the home advantage has dropped quite a bit, point-wise, from 4.7 points per game down to 1. I reran the rounds since we restarted and got better results by a little bit. This week's predictions are with the lower home advantage.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc Super Rugby Round 14.doc (54.5 KB, 311 views)
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  #5378  
Old 28th July 2020, 05:24 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby Round 15 (AOTEAROA Round 8, AU Round 5)

In 22 games since the restart, the visitors have now outscored the home teams. Three of four visitors are favourites this week, so the odd trend should continue.

Good luck in this weirdest of years.

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc Super Rugby Round 15.doc (54.5 KB, 285 views)
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  #5379  
Old 4th August 2020, 03:20 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby Round 16 (AOTEAROA Round 9, AU Round 6)

AOTEAROA is winding down, with one round remaining after this round. AU will have 4 more rounds followed by two playoff rounds.

The oddity is home disadvantage. Visitors have outscored the home teams by 2 points per game for the 26 games since we restarted. The good news is that 80% of my favourites have won. There have been rather few value bets and that is a problem when you want to have good and bad luck average out.

Stay well!

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc Super Rugby Round 16.doc (54.5 KB, 278 views)
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  #5380  
Old 11th August 2020, 05:55 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby Round 17 (AOTEAROA Round 10, AU Round 7)

Last week I mentioned that the home teams had been outscored by the visitors for the 26 games since the restart. In round 16, my two away favourites both lost, but the home team Rebels and Waratahs both cashed value bets, so I am happy with that. All four home teams won, outscoring the visitors by 64 points to go ahead point-wise for the new season.

Here comes the last AOTEAROA round. AU has five more rounds after this week.

Good luck and also keep beating COVID,

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc Super Rugby Round 17.doc (54.5 KB, 256 views)
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