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#31
11th April 2012, 01:47 PM
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the time and early split written in form guides depends on the form guide. some print the overall time for the winning dog and some print the actual time each dog ran. generally time differences are 1 length equals .07 of a second so it is easy to adjust to see what a dog would have run if its not given in your form eg if a winning dog runs 30.00 and the dog you're looking at get beat 10 lengths (10 x 0.07 = 0.7) so your dog has run 30.70 (this can adjust if the dogs was weakening or coming home) early splits on the other hand are entirely different and hopefully in the future form guides will look at this as it is a major indicator in greyhounds. the thing is a lot of tracks dont have the technology to record first splits for each dog just the lead dog (metro tracs like wenty, albion, sandown, meadows however do) yet too often you find forms that dont have first split times. suprising since it is a very high percentage of greyhounds who lead that win. your question of weight is exactly as moe says. the actual weight of the dog you can disregard on all basis except one. a 40kg dog and a 23kg bitch race to the first turn together and bump. who do u think wins the bumping duel? 40% its the inside dog, 10% its the outside, 20% its the bigger dog, 20% its the more determined/bigger heart, 5% its the smaller dog and 5% they bump enough that the dog running third gets inside or outside them to take the lead. the weight variation is the key. many greyhound websites that have career stats for a dog will display this. generally a dog has a set (natural) racing weight. the rules are a dog cannot vary more than a kilo between starts and no more than two kilos between starts one month apart. generally in a career you will see a dog range between 1-1.5kg either side of its natural weight with little impact on its performance. yet weight variations when changing trainers can be significant. i have know leading trainer tony brett to add or take off anywhere up to 3 kilos on a dog and improve its performance immeasurably. i would suggest looking at thedogs.com.au or grv.org.au they are the official websites for New South Wales and Vic greyhound racing. (the dogs requires free registration) they have very good form for meetings as well as indepth career stats, thedogs.com.au in particular 
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#32
11th April 2012, 01:56 PM
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I actually undertsand that. One question, do you eliminate ALL outliers, be they too fast, or too slow? Or is there a case to consider a dog's very best ratings in the greater scheme of things, and just eliminate the slow outliers?
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#33
11th April 2012, 01:58 PM
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what do u mean by outliers raven? and when you say the dogs best ratings, what constitutes its best ratings?
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#34
11th April 2012, 02:06 PM
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Many thanks, invaluable
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#35
11th April 2012, 02:15 PM
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I'm refering to my method for gallops, sorry. By outlier, I'm talking about a run that does not look representative. In gallops this can be their best speed rating as well as their worst, BUT early pace has a huge impact on time in gallops, I assume its impact is negligible in the dogs, ie, thet jump & just try to run the distance at full speed? If i consider a dog's certain run to be its fastest, and lets say its more than 1 std dv faster than its mean, is that unrepresentative data OR worth considering in a best case scenario sense? hope that makes sense
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#36
11th April 2012, 06:26 PM
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Unless the fast time is an error in data entry or whatever , then the animal ran that time. For whatever reason it did it. It is up to the handicapper to find good reason why it won't repeat the effort. This mainly applies to last start good efforts. If this massive effort was 6 months ago , then you would need substantial reason why it should suddenly repeat. I suggest you dump poor performance outliers and not dump the good ones. The most important decision is that when you dump lines be aware of what you are doing and why. Pace is not something that dogs decide as would a jockey. But races are run at a different pace , because there may be 4 really quick early animals , and this tends to break up the Field and the slower beginners have trouble winning because they need to make up a lot of ground and need to negotiate traffic as they do so. And only minor loss of time is usually the difference between figuring , and also rans. If you follow horses and pace , you already have a handle on whether backmarkers are likely to figure in an event.
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#37
11th April 2012, 09:57 PM
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If you eliminate approx the first 12 starts of a dog, this is about the time it is maturing, for the remaining runs find its median weight and the better performances will fall to the lighter side (time adjusted by box position) of this weight
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#38
11th April 2012, 10:04 PM
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You really don't want to be measuring how well a dog recovers from being checked or those below average performances or measuring bad runs. But if it's not checked in the first split you'd keep that data, if the check occurred after the first turn you don't need that 2nd split data or overall time. Dogs that generally lead the race will run above avg performances, so if you expect a dog to lead, you might decide to only use data when it has raced 1,2,3 at the first turn. A point to remember most dogs don't perform to a Normal distribution, and depending on the box position and racing style these play an important part of what shape distribution is required. This requires thought but it's logical Last edited by woof43 : 11th April 2012 at 10:08 PM.
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#39
11th April 2012, 10:12 PM
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I'm not worried too much about Final time, the only final time I measure is the 2nd place-getter whom I can be assured is trying to it's best of it's ability.
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#40
11th April 2012, 10:59 PM
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here is a more complex way to work this out. Track record 525 Time = 29.45 525 / 29.45 = 17.83 length of a dog assuming .07 is the correct length , .07 X 17.83 =1.25mtrs at record time Dog is beaten by 10 lengths beaten =10 X .07= .7 = 29.45 +.7= 30.15 29.45 X 525 / 30.15 = 512.81 metres 525 - 512.81 = 12.19 metres difference 12.19 / 1.25 = 9.75 lengths see what is happening, the question is how long is a length?
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