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  #1  
Old 12th March 2018, 11:26 AM
STARRAFT STARRAFT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil
1. This betting system operates on metropolitan meetings in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide on Saturdays.

2. The horse must be top weight in a handicap. So eliminate weight for age races, classic races, set weight races and set weight with penalties races.

3. The horse must have won over the track and distance.

4. It must have finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. at its last run within the last 28 days.


I always take into consideration the clear top weight in a race. Then I sometimes lay, sometimes back, or just ignore.

IMO the filters above are too restrictive. I consider all local meetings. Performance at the track rather than track & distance. And first-up record, if resuming.

Got a few winners Saturday including Redkirk Warrior, Morendi Hang, Sidetrip, Battle Hero, Spurcraft, Tisani Tomso, Choice Bro & Iconoclast
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  #2  
Old 19th April 2018, 08:18 PM
grizzle grizzle is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STARRAFT
IMO the filters above are too restrictive. I consider all local meetings. Performance at the track rather than track & distance. And first-up record, if resuming.

sounds reasonable starraft & it looks like it's working for you
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  #3  
Old 21st April 2018, 07:59 AM
STARRAFT STARRAFT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grizzle
it looks like it's working for you

Yep
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  #4  
Old 22nd April 2018, 08:46 PM
nutz nutz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STARRAFT
I always take into consideration the clear top weight in a race. Then I sometimes lay, sometimes back, or just ignore.

I consider all local meetings. Performance at the track rather than track & distance. And first-up record, if resuming.


Hi STARRAFT.

Negative for me when they're drawn wide
A positive when ridden by claiming apprentice in form, or with some previous good results on the same horse
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  #5  
Old 23rd April 2018, 12:02 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Like all these 1 horse a race systems .

Long term they only lead one to the poorhouse.
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  #6  
Old 9th June 2019, 05:41 PM
POSEIDON POSEIDON is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STARRAFT
I always take into consideration the clear top weight in a race. Then I sometimes lay, sometimes back, or just ignore.

Best horse in the race according to the handicapper, so yes, consider. However, the top-weight in a handicap is at a disadvantage, giving away weight. You need to consider the field strength. Just how disadvantaged is the horse relative to the field strength.
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  #7  
Old 9th June 2019, 09:46 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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True also.

Interestingly it was Warren Block who researched this factor and he was a non Bettor.
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  #8  
Old 13th June 2019, 06:22 PM
STARRAFT STARRAFT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by POSEIDON
You need to consider the field strength. Just how disadvantaged is the horse relative to the field strength.

Yep, already do this. Thanks.
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  #9  
Old 30th June 2019, 03:01 PM
STARRAFT STARRAFT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by POSEIDON
However, the top-weight in a handicap is at a disadvantage, giving away weight.

So you really don't want additional disadvantages. For the top-weight, also consider jockey pros & cons, suitability of race distance, barrier draw & likely speed map against the top-weights normal racing style.
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  #10  
Old 14th June 2018, 06:49 PM
stixNstonez stixNstonez is offline
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Did play around with Top Weights some time back. Mainly multiple betting. Had a number of filters, but best results came when restricting to those in the first four lines of the prepost market.
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