Well done DP.
Problem arises because they eventually got to get to VICTORIA!
I reckon Port Adelaide at the odds are OVERS.
If they don't go down 1st Round, then they can go all the way.

I done this

$40 on Sydney to return $174
$70 on Geelong to return $112.70
$15 on Port to win the CUP returns $300

But I thought Sydney weren't even going to try, Mo??? Well, that was the impression I got. These pre-season games are a bit like a horse race where all of the runners are resuming or having their first start or something. You really need a bit of inside information on the teams and knowledge of how seriously they're all taking it.

Jared Brennan,I LOVE YOU!
The Punting GODS smiled at me last night.
Running Tally Invested $100 Returned $117 POT 17%

Looked at my markets and realize that the bookies were much more accurate than what I was.Just can't afford to rely on luck anymore.Form study should have revealed that the Brisbane-Essendon Game was a no bet situation.And that Melbourne were in fact way over the odds.
So the opportunity to go back as to why my Markets were so wrong.

It seems what happened last year is what happened last year.If a team improved last year,then it did.It is not a sign that there is further improvement this year.In fact it is more likely that the team was playing on momentum and peaked out.And could very well slip back down a few rungs on the ladder.

Anyway,the mistakes I may have made could be...
Penalizing SHEEDY 10 points for being SHEEDY.Perhaps 6 points would have been better.
Penalizing Melbourne and not the Bulldogs for ground disadvantage 10 points.Maybe 6 points was better.
Melbourne minus 12 for fielding a reserves team?.They played well.So did Brisbane.No more huge penalties for young keen players.Not in the NAB cup anyway.

So with these things sorted,my other games become like this...
Hawthorn - Clarkson says he wants to win plus 3
Richmond - Wallace says he doesn't minus 3
Richmond - I don't believe Wallace plus 6

Richmond Hawthorn - 12 $1.57 $2.70
Geelong Carlton - 39 $1.16 $7.00
Adelaide Port Power - 12 $1.57 $2.70
St.Kilda Collingwood - 42 $1.14 $7.90
West Coast Fremantle - 29 $1.26 $4.80

Tried another Bet today
Double Geelong and Richmond $20 @ $2.90

Don't desire to win it as the main reason they are out there.
But I don't say they won't try.
Hard to win though with the squad they put on the field.Not the players fault.

Well, that's what I actually meant, Mo. Not that the players weren't going to try, but that the club wasn't going to try to put a really competitive team on the field. Mind you, Brisbane did almost the same sort of thing last night and still won!!!

Okay
When I saw a heap of Question marks, I thought you were making your own sense of humour about me.

Yes and Melbourne I believe also did similar.
I think it starts getting for real from now on

Okay.I think I got it now!
You come up with what the team is capable of.
Then impose penalties.Substantial penalties.
But very minor bonuses,if any.
A team is only as good as it is.You can't do better than your best.But you can do worse.

WATCH OUT BOOKIES!.I know where you live.
My name is MO,and I'm coming to get YOU!

Latest amendments to the remaining games with the benefits of hindsight.

Adelaide Port Power - 15 $1.50 $3.00
St.Kilda Collingwood - 45 $1.12 $8.90
West Coast Fremantle - 20 $1.40 $3.50

Running Tally Invested $205 Returned $229.7 POT 12%

2 games for consideration today.
St.Kilda available @ $1.47 and Eagles @ $1.90
If I back them both,and one of them goes down,the result would be a loss to the BANK.
Makes sense to just take a double.
Being up $25,I make it the bet at about $2.80.

Invested $230 Returned $230

See you next week!

Just letting you all know that Geelong has a shocking away record.
I originally tipped them by 15 points.
Now I believe they will go down.
As will collingwood and Hawthorn.
And am thinking the trip south will bring the Lions down as well.