Indeed. Study the market for long enough and you can toss your formguides, rating and databases in the bin.



Having a system (in the context Barny was referring to) and using a systematic approach are two distinct things.



Absolutely. There's profits to be made in both directions. The stock market punters have been doing it for ages.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I wouldn't exactly go that far.
You are quite correct, there are many market based approaches, that generate profit on their own.
Ratings and databases can add a lot of value to those approaches.

For example, not all $2.00 into $1.70 horses are the same.
Backing them all might be profitable at best tote or BFSP.
But really delving into race replays, trials, stewards reports, formguides, ratings and databases can really avoid many losing bets, which in turn generates greater profit.

If one can extract why a movement is happening and make a decision based on facts we have rather than facts we don't have, then at least we can rule out a percentage of furphy's.



I think it depends on your definition of a system.
A system does not necessarily have to select one two or three horses a race.
It doesn't necessarily have to rely on form filters.
In fact in my book any set of filters is a system.

Perhaps we each have our own interpretation of what a system actually is?

I do not for example think a system is based on staking, that's yet another distinct thing as you say.

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I suspect this is the case.

Yes any set of filters would be part of a system in my book also. Not sure I agree about staking though. My interpretation of Wikipedia's definition of a system is that a system has STRUCTURE - we'd call them filters. INTERCONNECTIVITY - i.e. if filter 'a' is true then we move on to filter 'b' otherwise we move on to filter 'c', and BEHAVIOUR - i.e. what we do. Staking could arguably be placed here.

On the whole though I think racings systems are poorly or impatiently researched; as suggested above system users tend not to have a "business plan" i.e. what do I do if things turn against me; unrealistic user expectations as to how they'll profit from the system; and many a far too complex.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I remember Mark's system, it was good to use cos frankly it needed no computer once you got some experience.
It was a good starting point, basic.

My "system", has not changed one bit for well over 10 years. I have not seen it posted anywhere on any racing forum yet, so I am not aware if anyone else uses it.
Does it work? Does it profit? and Does it lose?
Yes to all 3, it's HOW one plays their "system".

The point is, look for what is comfortable with you.

The horse market is a little like the stock exchange. New information is always coming to hand and the times change.

In order to make money betting on horses, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public

In reality long-term if you put many hours into the horses you can make 5-10% POT. Its the fun element that keeps us coming back otherwise you might as well buy an investment property.

Successful punters think in terms of chances., not fancies and certainties. They try to assess the true chance of a horse in a race and bet on the basis of their evaluations.

Good luck

That's an extremely good summary of it.


Not entirely agreeing here. You can't buy an investment property with $1,000.
Make that into turnover of $500,000.
If POT was only 5% = $25,000 profit.
$1,000 becomes $26,000, the following year, etc etc etc.
No investment property is going to reap those kind of rewards with such small capital.
This is what brings me to this game......and of course the love of the spectacle that is racing.

__________________
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Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Me too.
Pretty sure I've told this before. I started my Betfair a/c with $3000, promptly lost most of it, was down to $500, and haven't looked back since. Have copped a weekly wage for roughly 7 years ever since from $500.

This is a top question you pose Barny. Here's my thoughts.......

I was thinking that maybe we could group these systems and this is what I came up with. ( You've got to do something when there's ************ all races )

I've been down all three of the following roads and I can only make one work. Not knocking the other two, just that I can't make them work.

The three system roads.....

1) Purely mathematics and divvies....maybe Marks' forte? This method is unlikely to suffer over time because dividends by their very nature take all things into account.

2) The approach that maximizes form analysis and then seeks to find best odds to make a profit. This method is subject to the availability of odds and may suffer from competition as punters become better informed.

3) Grail territory. These are the systems that have such an advantage (usually strike rate, less often a repeatable high price concept) that an impressive profit is gleaned whatever the odds available. These little beauties have so much leeway built in that you can look at years of profit with no tweaking.

Time to cook the evening meal now so I'll toddle off. love to hear from those making this game work as to where they fit into the scheme.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

sort of,
I would add strategy with mathematics and divvies.