Thanks LG

I really identify with these qoutes.

Cheers.

Morning garyf,

When you say you relate,
In terms of life or the punt?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Well I'll take 10's on that the SUN will not only rise tomorrow , but will rise within a minute of the same time it rose today.

The Punt.

Cheers.

garyf, do you think profit is still achievable if you weren't able to watch the market before a race?

' CAN THE PAST PREDICT THE FUTURE. '


As far as horses go, what else is there to go on?
Mind reading perhaps?
When punting there is no other way, you must take into account the past, be it performance or non performance.

__________________
Jose'.

The NOW can also predict the future,
As in price moves at open and/or just before close?

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Putting a bet on without not knowing my return v/s risk,
Is not my way of doing things.


Betting market.
Stock market.
Share market.

If you don't look at the market, any market, how can,
You know if a profit can be achieved before you invest?.

What's your thoughts?.

Cheers.

The 12 Major and 16 Minor Axiomsffice



The book Zurich Axioms contains a set of principlesproviding a practical philosophy and trading psychology for the realisticmanagement of risk. These common sense principles is available everyone and canbe practised anyone - the man in the street and not just the ************.



Although many of the axioms go against the conventionalbelief and traditional wisdom of the investment advice business, those whomaster the meanings and implemented the concepts will be successful - just likethe enterprising Swiss speculators who devised them became rich, while manyinvestors who follow the conventional path do not.



Major Axiom 1: On Risk



Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health. If you are notworried, you are not risking enough



Put your money at risk. Don't be afraid to get hurt alittle. The degree of risk you will usually be dealing with is nothair-raisingly high. By being willing to face it, you give yourself the onlyrealistic chance you have of rising above the great un-rich. Worry is the hotand tart sauce of life. Once you get used to it, you enjoy it.



MinorAxiom I
Always play for meaningful stakes






MinorAxiom II
Resist the allure of diversification.
(Because it forces you to violate precept minor axiom 1.)
(Because it creates situation where gains and losses cancel each other out.)
(Because you end up with too many balls in the air.)






Major Axiom 2: On Greed



Always take your profit too soon.



Sell too soon. Don't hope for winning streaks to go on andon. Don't stretch your luck. Expect winning streaks to be short. When you reacha previously decided-upon ending position, cash out and walk away. Do this evenwhen everything looks rosy, when everyone else is saying the boom will keeproaring along.



The ONLY reason for not doing it would be that some newsituation has arisen, and this situation makes you all but certain that you cango on winning for a while.



Except in such usual circumstances, get in the habit ofselling too soon. And when you've sold, don't torment yourself if the winningcontinues without you.



MinorAxiom III
Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, getout.






Major Axiom 3: On Hope



When the ship starts to sink, don't pray. Jump.



Learning to take losses is an essential speculativetechnique. MOST never learn it. Take losses at once and move on. Take smalllosses to protect yourself from the big ones.



Beware the 3 obstacles to jumping ship:



Fear of regret (that the loser will turn out to be a winnerwhen you've bailed-out)



Unwillingness to abandon part of an investment (becomewilling to abandon)



Difficulty of admitting you made a mistake.



MinorAxiom IV
Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience severalwhile awaiting a large gain.






Major Axiom 4: On Forecasts



Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone whoclaims to know the future, however dimly.



Nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in thefuture. Nobody. Never lose sight of the possibility you have made a bad bet.



Major Axiom 5: On Patterns
The Emperor Axiom






Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.



Do not look for order where order does not exist. Do notoverlook the large role chance takes in any speculation. Study information inwhatever speculative medium to improve chances and take your best shot. Staylight on your feet ready to jump this way or that. You are dealing with chaos,as long as you are alert to that fact you can keep yourself from getting hurt.
Internal Monolog goes:
"OK. I've done my homework as well as I know how. I think this bet can payoff for me. But since I cannot see or control all the random events that willaffect what happens to my money. I know the chance of me being wrong is large.Therefore I will stay light on my feet, ready to jump this way or that whenwhatever is going to happen happens."






MinorAxiom V
Beware the historians trap.
The Historian's trap is a particular kind of orderly illusion. It is based onthe age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that history repeats itself. Peoplewho hold this belief - which is to say perhaps ninety-nine out of every hundredpeople on earth - believe as a corollary proposition that the orderlyrepetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations....Don't fall into this trap. It is true that history repeats itself sometimes,but most often it doesn't, and in any case it never does so in a reliableenough way that you can prudently bet money on it.






MinorAxiom VI
Beware the Chartist's illusion.






MinorAxiom VII
Beware the correlation and causality delusions. >





MinorAxiom VIII
Beware the Gambler's Fallacy. (This is my lucky day.)






Major Axiom 6: On Mobility


Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.



Be ready to jump away from trouble or seize opportunity. Youdo not have to bounce from one speculation to another like a ping-pong ball.All your moves should be made only after a careful assessment of the odds forand against, and no move should be made for trivial reasons. But when a ventureis clearly souring, or when something clearly more promising comes into view,then you must sever those roots and go. Don't let the roots get too thick tocut.



MinorAxiom IX
Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyaltyand nostalgia.






MinorAxiom X
Never hesitate to abandon a venture of something more attractive comes intoview.






Major Axiom 7: On Intuition



A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.



Though intuition is not infallible, it can be a usefulspeculative tool, if handled with care and skepticism.



If you are hit by strong hunch - put it to the test. Trustit only if you can explained it. That is only if you can identify within yourmind a stored body of information out of which that hunch must reasonably besupposed to have arisen.



Be wary of any intuition that seems to promise some outcomeyou want badly.



MinorAxiom XI
Never confuse a hunch with a hope.






Major Axiom 8: On Religion and the Occult



It is unlikely that god's plan for the universe includesmaking you rich.



Assume you are on your own. Rely on nothing but your ownwits.



MinorAxiom XII
If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.






MinorAxiom XIII
A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept inits place.






Major Axiom 9: On Optimism & Pessimism



Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence meansknowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merelyoptimistic.



Optimism can be a speculator's enemy. It feels good and isdangerous for that reason. It produces a clouding of judgment. It can lead youinto a venture with no exits. Even when there is an exit, optimism can persuadeyou not to use it.
You should never make a move if you are merely optimistic. Before committingyour money to a venture, ask how you will save yourself if things go wrong.Once you have that worked out, you've got something better than optimism.You've got confidence.






Major Axiom 10: On Consensus



Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.



Probably wrong. Figure everything out for yourself.



MinorAxiom XIV
Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is whenno-one else wants it.






Major Axiom 11: On Stubbornness



If it doesn't pay off the first time forget it.



Perseverance is a good idea for spiders and kings, but notalways for speculators. Don't fall into the trap of trying to squeeze a gainout of any single speculative entity.



Don't chase any investment in a spirit of stubbornness.Reject any thought that an investment "owes you" something. And don'tbuy the alluring, but fallacious idea that you can improve a bad situation byaveraging down.



MinorAxiom XV
Never try to save a bad investment by averaging down.






Major Axiom 12: On Planning



Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that thefuture is under control. It is important never to take your own long-rangeplans, or other people's, too seriously. >>



React to events as they occur in the present. Put your moneyinto ventures as they present themselves and withdraw it from hazards as theyloom up. Value the freedom that will allow you to do this. Don't ever sign thatfreedom away.
There is only one long-range financial plan you need: the intention to growrich. The how is not knowable or plan-able. All you need to know is that youwill do it somehow.






MinorAxiom XVI
Shun long-term investments.