Hi TTA and Matt ,


Any thing come of this?
My new system under way now (3 weeks only - 13 selections for 6 wins
but no value.....)

Still lookin , getting closer , but need price.

And you ?

Last start winner
Top ranked place percent
Career Starts >= 15

Hi Axledog,

I have revisited my system a few weeks ago after I read about looking at starters without a lot of career runs.

Formally I looked at horses with 7 to 29 career starts but I now only look at horses with <20 career starts, that are also last start winners and with a few other rules, one being prepost price is <$10. This has increased the POT% considerably.

Keep working at it I'm sure you will strike it lucky soon!

You have been TOUd. Please stick to discussing the betting system and not flaming/baiting forum members. Thank you. Moderator.

The stats show that the average strike rate of horses decreases as number of career starts increases but I am not sure how to interpret this. Should we be giving horses with fewer starts a greater rating or should we be compensating horses that have had a lot of starts?

There is no reason why the Peter Principle can not be applied to horses. They just go up in class until they become mediocre.

Is there any danger as to posting who the members responsible for issuing the TOU in the future?
Is that a problem?

Hi Axledog,

I look at the following rules for last start winners

1. Career starts
2. Unitab Rating
3. Win%
4. Days since last started (DSLS)
5. Prepost price

I only bet on Good or Dead tracks on Saturday Metropolitan meetings in SA,VIC, NSW & Qld.

As I previously indicated I changed how I was applying my rules and since 19th May there has been 26 bets for 7 winners (27% S/R) and an increase in bank of 32.4 units on an outlay of 45 units = POT% of 72%

The gold is out there - we just have to find it!

Hi axledog,

I didn't really look any further into this mate, my last start winner systems are all going well so I didn't feel the need to try and scrutinize any further. I hope your S/R continues, if you can get the best price you will be ahead over time.

Cheers,

Matt.

Interesting point raised here, I have found that most of the systems I use perform best with horses that have won a maximium of 4 races, after this the number of winners and profitability tends to drop away a bit in my experience.

Cheers,

Matt.