For today, I've only this pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers

With Smith in the nets and a 4.5 conceeded goals average record when playing on the road, we have here a spot to take some advantage. This seems easy. However, this is just a stat. So, I will continue with some explanation about Tampa Bay, as we won the last 2 reads i've done about this team.

The Lightning are a special team with extra-confidence when they play at home. But today they will play on the road. In 4 games, they've got 3 regular time losses and one loss in OT. The last two road games, they lost 1-7 and 1-4. Before those 2 games, they won 2 at home, so we can't excuse them with things like "they weren't in their best form". They had also their roster without injuries.

What can I say about this? They are very weak on the road, with huge problems on the nets, particularly when Smith is their goaltender. It's true that they have very talented players in their first line, but they've got some kind of syndrome, as they usually play bad on the road. Moons' players. Moody players.

Philadelphia after a good start lowered their performance until they've got that 6 days rest. Since then, they only lost to Sharks and Capitals, but the loss against San Jose was at home. They've scored more than 3.80 goals per game at home, as they are a very offensive team that loves to give good shows and in my opinion, the Flyers are a team that can beat anyone at home.

Therefore, what can we think about this game? Tampa Bay will attempt to approach this game with a lot of cautions, as they know how bad they are on the road and how much they need St Louis, Lecavallier and so on to play well. Yet, these players can't produce enough on the road and more than that, these players need confidence from the team to play well. That trust will not travel with the team, as they are coming from a bad loss at home, after the draw with Devils for one goal.

In the other side, the Flyers gave a blowout win last game, winning 6-1 at home against a lousy Hurricanes team. But if we watch the last home games, they gave another blowout win against Florida, and losing in RT and won in OT with teams with a even away record. So, we can see that Philadelphia takes advantage from teams that approach the games with some fears. In their home field, they dictate the law and another blowout victory for the Flyers seems probable.


Pick: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) The Greek



This is my current NHL 2009-2010 season record: 23-37 (-5.8 units lost/60 units risked)