For years I have been wanting to come up with a method of selecting horses (system if you like)that will be characterised by the following criteria:
1. Will provide a profit (obviously) in both the short-term (hopefully) and in the long-term (definitely)
2. Will provide selections suitable for the days when I am not otherwise at work.( In my case this means Sat/Sun and Thurs pm)
3. Will provide me with more than just a single selection on any one day; the more the merrier (Otherwise I will get bored)
4. Let's me select the relevant horses from one or more features of Neale's program.
Before I go further, I freely admit the criteria have been determined by simple datamining. Yes, I am aware that what happened yesterday doesn't mean that it will happen today, but i believe that this is no less true of in-depth handicapping (of whatever sort people might choose). Unfortunately I don't have the time to do this anyway, but when I have, in the past, I find I am limited, through time constraints to one or two races (boring!)
My analysis has been bsed on the BR1 factor, and covers some 1000 winners over the period Jan 01-date.
Results obtained are a win SR of 28% with an average return of $5.17 (NSW tote)
One of my problems in the past has been determining the "likelihood of a profit versus the likelihood of going bust, but I have come across a fascinating calculator which I suggest people might care to look at.
The address is:
http://****************************************
I have been monitoring my data with the aid of this, and while I don't know how it works it does seem to have reasonable short-term accuracy, such that for a total of 8 bets (viz tonite I have a 68% chance of making a profit, and 0% chance of going bust). I the longer term (200 bets) the first figure increases to >95% and the chances of busting remain at zero
So, while I don't intend divulging my criteria, I will be posting my selections on each of the 3 days.
My aim, starting with a $1000 bank is to bet 1% of the current bank (WIN ONLY),for a total of 200 bets (or bust- whichever comes sooner). I will be using the NSW TAB at this stage rather than getting into the more esoteric types, ie Betfair, etc
Today's Selections:
BR$1 MOV THURS SYS1: 18/11/2004 MOONEE VALLEY
MR 2 # 5 x461 DON'T BE A DEVIL
MR 3 # 7 x123 TAVETTE
MR 5 # 6 2x45 SUBELLA
MR 6 # 3 647x VALEDICTUM
MR 7 # 7 8x12 ALIANDRA


BR$1 CAN THURS SYS1: 18/11/2004 CANTERBURY
SR 1 # 3 2332 MASTER STRATEGY
SR 4 # 3 12x1 RADETZKY MARCH
SR 5 # 4 2396 THE ARK
SR 6 # 6 7x13 ESCONDIJO
SR 7 # 1 7323 LOOKOUT

So let the battle begin- after all, should it not work out then I haven't lost a squillion

Regards to all

Brian