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#1
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AFL Power Ratings
These are my own power ratings for 2004. I plan on using them in 2005.
Port 92.5 Bris 92.8 St K 92.2 Geel 91.7 Melb 91.1 Syd 90.7 WCE 90.4 Ess 90.3 Fre 90.1 Kang 90.1 Carl 87.8 Ade 89.6 Coll 89.1 WBD 87.5 Haw 85.8 Rich 85.6 How do I turn them into percentage probabilities? Benny |
#2
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Can you please tell me how you arrived at those figures??? Then I might be able to help.
Last edited by sportznut : 12th December 2004 at 07:25 PM. |
#3
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Port allowed 1823 pnts which you multipled by 10 then divide the pnts scorded. Subtract that from a hundred.
E.G Port 1823*10= 18230/2413=7.5 100-7.5= a power rating of 92.5 Does that help? Benny |
#4
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Take Geelong and Melbourne. You've got Geelong 91.7 and Melbourne 91.1. I'm assuming that it basically means Geelong is a six point better team than Melbourne on a neutral ground??? Is that right?
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#5
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I haven't factored in the home ground advantage.
Benny |
#6
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If you want to work out ratings based on this years Home & Away, you could possibly think about this: Take a team's winning % and add it to their for & against % and then divide by two to get an average score. This should then give you some indication of the points differences between the teams.
In this case, it would be: 105.0 Brisbane 104.9 Port Adel 100.3 St Kilda 94.1 Geelong 87.8 Melbourne 83.2 Sydney 81.4 West Coast 78.5 Essendon 75.3 Fremantle 72.9 Kangaroos 66.0 Adelaide 63.8 Collingwood 63.6 Carlton 51.2 W.Bulldogs 44.2 Hawthorn 43.7 Richmond That's not counting the Finals series though. If you did that, of course Port would be ahead of Brisbane. Last edited by sportznut : 13th December 2004 at 10:49 AM. |
#7
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Thanks. I might try it next year, but after a couple of rounds. What do you think?
Benny |
#8
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How do I covert the ratings into a percentage figure?
Benny |
#9
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Okay, let's use your ratings. Take a game between say Carlton and Hawthorn at the MCG. You have Carlton on 87.8 and Hawthorn on 85.8. I've taken the liberty of just assuming that every .1 of a point is equivalent to 1 point on the scoreboard, because in the case of your ratings, I think that's not a bad assessment. Therefore, we have Carlton winning by 20 points.
Mo had a good formula for working out fair prices. It probably sounds a bit complicated, but I think it works well. I think the magic number was 0.955, wasn't it Mo? To find out the true value price for the favoured team Carlton, you multiply 0.955 by itself 20 times (once for every point you have Carlton winning by) and then add 1. Doing that, you end up with $1.40. To get Carlton's % chance, you simply divide 1.40 into 100 and you get 71.42%. Therefore Hawthorn's % chance is obviously 100 - 71.42, so 28.58%. Divide 100 by 28.58 and you get Hawthorn's value price of $3.50. So therefore in that match, you would get: Carlton (71.42%) $1.40 Hawthorn (28.58%) $3.50 Personally, I think it's a tad dangerous using ratings based on this year's results. I always like to use my own opinion. I've already done a revised set of ratings for next year. Obviously, I'll probably change it again slightly by the time the season rolls around, but at the moment, my ratings are like this: 126 Port Adel 120 St Kilda 117 Geelong 114 Brisbane 111 Sydney 108 West Coast 105 Essendon 102 Collingwood 99 Fremantle 96 Melbourne 96 Carlton 93 Adelaide 90 Kangaroos 84 West B'dogs 84 Hawthorn 84 Richmond Last edited by sportznut : 14th December 2004 at 10:43 AM. |
#10
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If you want, I could work out a table based on that formula of Mo's, so that you wouldn't have to work it out for every single game.
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